Archives for September 2008

Being an optimist: a keynote on economic development

September 29, 2008 by JimCarroll

So I’m in an airport, on my way to keynote a conference on economic development.

And of course, I saw the latest news on the ‘bailout’, and the plunge in the Dow.

And so I went to look up the definition of being an optimist, to reassure myself:

Optimist: 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome.

That’s me! And my keynote is being adjusted on the fly before I get on stage tomorrow.

Here’s the fascinating thing that is going on: I’m getting far more calls, and a lot of new business, from CEO’s and senior executives who have determined that one of the ways to stay in front of this mess is to keep innovating. In other words, innovation — adjusting business plans, tackling new markets, focusing on opportunity, seeking what to do next — is now more important than ever before.

That’s probably good news for the many folks who read this blog. There continues to be unparalleled opportunities out there. The short term might be rocky, but the longer term is very, very real.

High velocity change in the food/consumer products sector

September 23, 2008 by JimCarroll

I’m in Manhattan tomorrow, speaking at an event for food, advertising and packaging companies on behalf of Readers Digest Food & Entertaining Division.

I’ll be offering a late morning wrap up of observations about the high-velocity change that continues to envelop the sector, particularly the following trends. Dig through the blog — particularly, the retail or consumer product categories — and you’ll find a little bit more insight about each of them.

the new consumer is faster — and innovation isn’t just about new product design — it’s about reaching and interacting with the consumer in new and different ways
the new consumer is connected — and interactivity is the new brand foundation
the new consumer is no longer nuclear — and hyper-nicheing is the new brand reality
the new consumer is influenced differently — and social-networks are the new brand influencers
the new consumer is shifting their focus faster — and faster paced preference change is the new reality
the new product is rapidly re-defined — and time to market and corporate agility are the new corporate capabilities
the new product is up-side down as innovation changes — and partnership is the key method to speed things up

Here’s one of the statistics in my deck — 71% of consumers are choosing to prepare meals at home rather than eating out; restaurant trips have declined from 1.5 times a week in 2006 to 1.2 times today.

These statistics, from the Food Marketing 2008 US Grocery Shopper Trends report, came out before the economic challenges of mid-September and the problems on Wall Street.

One of my key messages is that we live in a time when “volatility is the new normal” — a mantra I’ve been using for years — and food companies must learn to innovate faster to capitalize on such fast moving trends.

We’ll probably see this particular trend pick up steam — and there’s opportunity for new advertising messages, branding campaigns, not to mention new product offerings!

Faster is the new fast!

Interview – “Is it time to panic?”

September 19, 2008 by JimCarroll

The CBC contacted me for my thoughts on the events this week, and in particular, the impact on the Canadian economy.

They invited folks to write in with their questions. As you can see, many people are worried about the safety of their investments.

I take the first question — about whether there is a panic out there — and try and put things into perspective.

“I remain quite the optimist about the potential for economic growth worldwide. There are 650 million people worldwide entering middle class through the next decade, and there are a lot of growth markets that emerge with that. Health care, the environment, energy — all of these industries are immersed in very rapid scientific advancement and fast paced innovation, with new discoveries, and hence new markets.

I’m dealing with global manufacturing companies who are moving beyond market commoditization and the impact of Asia, by focusing on more sophisticated product and higher-value skills. I spend a lot of time with a variety of global companies that seek my guidance, and certainly see that despite financial market turmoil, there’s a lot of growth out there.
Think about it another way — we’ve had quite a few “large scale economic hits” which have whacked the stock market over the last ten years. The Asian currency collapse in 1998 caused havoc with global markets.

Then there was the dot.com implosion in 2000. There was a lot of concern with the telecom meltdown a few years later — remember Nortel and the hit to the pocketbook of many Canadians? Not to forget the huge market downturn which occurred with 9/11.

Things are moving at light-speed out there, but remember — when it comes to trends and the future, there are short term events but long term trends. The former can often by scary as heck; the latter are often calmer.

Read the transcript

Financial meltdown? Or environmentally responsible reporting?

September 17, 2008 by JimCarroll

I don’t want to distract from the seriousness of the events unfolding on Wall Street, but check out these headlines:

American banks face financial meltdown if their reforms fail.
Mortage Meltdown!
Bloody and Bowed — Money Managers Remain Badly Shaken by the Meltdown.
Market Cap Meltdown — Billions in Blue Chip Stock Values Have Been Blown Away.
Congress caught in a bind over bank crisis.
Crisis Looming As Realty Slump Becomes Global

Now consider the date these headlines appeared:

Banks face financial meltdown if their reforms fail, The Times, December 1990
Mortgage Meltdown, Toronto Star, December 1989
Bloody and Bowed — Money Managers Remain Badly Shaken by the Meltdown, Barron’s – December 1987
Market Cap Meltdown — Billions in Blue Chip Stock Values Have Been Blown Away, Barron’s, October 1987
Congress caught in bind over bank crisis, Independent, November 1990
Crisis Looming as Realty Slump Becomes Global, American Banker, October 1990

Maybe it’s that the news media is being environmentally responsible and is recycling news headlines?

The events as they are unfold are tragic, and there are people losing their jobs. We’ve yet to see where it will all go.

On the other hand, it needs to be put into the context of previous “meltdowns”. We’ve been here before, folks. And at the end of the day, there will still be banks, insurance companies, investment organizations, and a financial system.

I wrote about this a few months ago, and put together a “Memo to the CEO” that examined the issue of innovation. Maybe it’s a good time to resurrect for those organizations that are concentrating on getting through this mess and moving on to the next stage. As we come out of it, it will be those focused on innovating within the new marketplace who will come out on top.

Read the Memo to the CEO

Change! What happens when change happens?

September 11, 2008 by JimCarroll

Well, it seems that EVERYBODY is now talking about change. Given that, it’s time to resurrect my original “change” video!

Need more on change? Read my 10 Great Words — get inspired!

Can change happen? It can — but it takes a lot of work! I spend my time on stage with audiences of 2,000 people — or with CEO meetings — focusing on how to get things to change. Even so, this video clip is inspiring — when confronted with change — JUST DEAL WITH IT!

Here’s the story about the video. Outside my home office, I’ve got what my family has come to call the “squirrel highway.” All day long, they scurry back and forth along the top of the fence, busy collecting and hiding food.

A few years ago, my sons and I wondered what would happen if we put up some highway signs for them to obey.

We set up a video camera — taped for six hours running — and edited out the best bits. It’s a project we’re still working on.

This clip was the funniest one — and seems to tell a bit of a story as to the right way to deal with change. I spend a huge amount of my time in keynotes and workshops helping organizations adapt to the rapid rates of change that surround us. And it’s certainly clear that lots of people just aren’t good with change. This little fellow is!

7 Things to Do Right Now As the Upturn Begins!

September 11, 2008 by JimCarroll

I’m often providing detailed strategic guidance to senior executives and leaders on trends and the future, and certainly the economy has become a big part of what I address today. Much of my time is spent putting into perspective the fact that we’ve always had downturns; there’s still plenty of growth opportunities out there; innovation is even more critical now to ensure that you’re ready to go as the economy starts firing on both cylinders again (which it will.)

What has become evident is that the most pressing issue for leaders today is the focus. While volatility rocks global markets, there continue to be fundamental truths: your industry, products, competition, skills requirements, organizational capabilities, and ability to respond to rapid change will define your future success.

Here’s my advice on what you should be doing right now to ensure that you are ready for what comes next, based, in part, on a blog entry I wrote last April!

think growth: It’s all too easy right now to lose your enthusiasm and sense of purpose. When economies contract, so too does your motivation. Don’t let that happen — now is the worst time to lose sight of the future! Think opportunity: study my “Where’s the Growth” document, and think about what it implies

check your speed: it’s the high-velocity economy. Markets, brands, products, industries, competition, and globalization are changing faster than ever before. Make sure you’ve got a team that can operate at the pace of change. Agility is the key word. Search this blog for insight on that!
immerse in ideas. The global idea cycle is collapsing. New ideas are launched, analyzed, and developed into products at a speed that is astonishing. Rapid product change is the new norm: I’m dealing with the CEO of one organization that is involved in a rapidly emerging, multi-billion dollar market that will appear, go super-nova, and disappear, over the course of about 18-24 months, before it is superseded by the next generation of product. That’s fast, and that’s a new reality.
check your bench strength. After the cutting begins, the value goes out the door. Yet your ability to access ever more scarce, specialized skills will define your future success. It’s your ability to establish a fast, agile, quick-to-assemble collaborative team that will define your ability to grab all the opportunity that is emerging out there.
assess your threats. where could emerging technologies, fast science, radical business models, new industry dynamics, new regulatory macroeconomic, political, or social trends impact your bottom line in a way that you hadn’t thought of before? Two years ago, China and quality wasn’t an issue.
invest in the experience. Experiential capital — the depth of capability that you have from exploring, taking risks, trying things out — is the financial capital. It’s a precious resource and might be in short supply if you aren’t working to build it up.
set the tone. If you let the current economic headlines drive your corporate spirit, you’re sunk. You have to keep people focused on the future — otherwise, your team will smell your fear. Leadership is all about keeping your team focused on opportunity and goals, not on ongoing and regular (“new normal” volatility.

Archives for September 2008

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THE FUTURE BELONGS TO THOSE WHO ARE FAST features the best of the insight from Jim Carroll’s blog, in which he covers issues related to creativity, innovation and future trends.

THE FUTURE BELONGS TO THOSE WHO ARE FAST features the best of the insight from Jim Carroll’s blog, in which he
covers issues related to creativity, innovation and future trends.