A Masters in Business Imagination!
Because Oblio knows!
by JimCarroll
A Masters in Business Imagination!
Because Oblio knows!
by JimCarroll
“Every new technology is ultimately used for a nefarious purpose, accelerating societal risk” – Futurist Jim Carroll
What keeps me up at night?
That was one of the questions that came to me with my recent keynote at the Zurich Global Risk Management Summit held outside Lucerne, Switzerland. My main answer is, beyond the current geopolitical situation: accelerating technology.
This comes from someone who has been a huge technology fan since first getting online and into tech in a serious way in 1982. Why now? Because of acceleration – new technology is evolving so fast that we as a society no longer understand how to manage it and minimize the new risk that it presents.
That was one of my main observations for this audience of risk managers for global organizations – folks who have to monitor, manage and clean up after sudden new risk impacts their organization and society. To manage new risk, they must be able to identify and manage that new risk – but this becomes extremely challenging as that new tech matures at a pace that has simply become staggering. Bottom line? As I observed, while technology has always been a problem in terms of providing for new risks, the big problem now is the speed with which it is coming about.
“New technologies will now always emerge faster than the ability of organizations to manage the risk it represents!”
The audio of my keynote provides insight into the mindset I shared from the stage: our world is certainly quickly becoming an uncontrollable hellscape as immaturity comes to rule the agenda on many technology platforms.
I can go on Twitter and read my Twitter feed and in 20 minutes come away thoroughly depressed about the state of the world, because Twitter has been weaponized to a huge degree, and we have not gone through the thought process of how do we asa mature society deal with this rapid generation of false news and skewed news and a reality that does not exist. I don’t think as a society, we’re really having that conversation. I think from a corporate perspective, I think what we need to do is we need to elevate our concerns…
But the example I used in Switzerland had less to do with that and more with the broader trend of the speed of new risk. Take, for example, the acceleration of artificial intelligence – AI – and how quickly text-to-image technology was maturing. Listening to the audio transcript of my keynote:
Ultimately any technology which is coming out is going to present society and present you with unparalleled risks, and the challenge is now that new technologies will always now emerge faster than your ability to manage the risk it presents.
Specifically:
You will have seen in the last three months an explosion of news information on what we call text-to-image generators, artificial intelligence driven text to image and text to video systems. And what this is going to do is t blur the difference between reality and fake to such a degree that we will barely be able to comprehend it. That keeps me up at night a heck of a lot, and it comes from the same acceleration of technology that is providing disruptive opportunity,
This all leads us to a world of unknown risk – the ultimate challenge for today’s risk manager:
We’re now in a situation in which companies that do not yet exist will build products not yet conceived, using materials not yet invented with methodologies not yet in existence. How do you manage risk in that world? It means you need to accelerate yourself, you need to accelerate risk analysis, you need to have better radar on the trends that are coming with the future, both in terms of their transformative opportunity, but their massively disruptive downside.
During the Q&A that followed my keynote, someone asked me if we should worry about AI, Here was my answer.
I’m more concerned about the manner by which it can be used to alter reality, and what is going on right now with these systems, DALL-E and other text-to-image generators. It’s just exploded in the last three months, it sort of bubbled along there for years and years and years, and all of a sudden it’s… so massively real. What we can do with it is staggering, but what we can do with it from a risk perspective to generate fake headlines or generate video of politicians saying something that they never said, that’s coming at us extremely quickly. So I worry less about the role of artificial intelligence – you can do magical things, so for example, diagnosis of a disease, AI can do a better diagnosis of 909 different types of eye disease than an ophthalmologist …I’m less concerned about what it provides and more concerned about how it might be used or misused, and I don’t think we as a society are ready at all to deal with that reality.
The future of risk? Pretty cloudy! The resort that I was speaking at was located on a mountaintop, with a spectacular view out over Lake Lucerne.
During the morning of my keynote, the lake was shrouded in fog. The stage, set against the windows overlooking what would have been a spectacular view (the large panel of windows to the right in the picture), provided me with the perfect observation to close my talk:
The future of risk is perhaps as cloudy is the fog outside the window, but some way you have to figure out a way to navigate yourself through it, a little bit over time
Before I went on stage, I went out into the fog and filmed the video version of my Daily Inspiration – I’ve been doing this every day since I joined TikTok a few weeks ago. You’ll find them on TikTok and Youtube Shorts. Note my nice hair!
This was not the first keynote in which I took on the subject of the future of risk – with a 30-year career on stage, I’ve done many highly customized talks around the topic. Here’s a clip from a keynote on the future of risk for one of the world’s largest law firms:
And indeed, the issue of the future of risk – from a legal perspective – was one of 19 Trends for 2019 that I covered in a video series:
Baker McKenzie, the 2nd largest law firm in the world, had me address the future of risk for an audience similar to that in Europe – twice, in Chicago and Dallas – and here’s the teaser video I put out in advance of the event:
So, the future of risk?
Kind of cloudy!
by JimCarroll
In 1993, Digital Equipment – then one of the most significant high-tech companies in the world – held a road show to highlight the growing importance of the Internet and the emerging digital economy. They invited senior executives of key clients – the CEOs, CFO, and CIOs of major corporations and government agencies – to attend the event. To kick the day off with a resounding opening message, they found Jim Carroll – then a new keynote speaker on transformation, innovation, the future, and disruption – and invited him to headline a 7-city’ road show’ event to educate, delight, and entertain its key customers.
This singular event became the defining moment for a 30-year career in which a vast number of major global organizations have engaged Jim Carroll to provide a key message at a critical customer or client event. Here’s an overview of just a few of the events and clients he has headlined over the years, including franchise events, tech companies, professional service firms, and more.
SAP: they have booked Jim for multiple events (+40!) throughout the world for keynotes focused on business transformation, digital innovation, opportunities for streamlining insight, and accelerating business operations. The events included multiple keynotes shared with the North American CEO, as well as detailed customer panels based on extensive consultation and exploration of customer success stories
Siemens Energy: he was the keynote speaker at an event for major energy/utility clients, with a talk that focused on the acceleration of the energy sector, including renewables, microgrids, battery storage technology, and industry transformation
Zurich Insurance: they invited Jim to speak at their 2022 global risk management conference, with a message on post-pandemic opportunities and the future of risk. Af us know that the ultimate impact of the global pandemic has been an acceleration of the many disruptive trends that were already well underway pre-Covid. Clearly, the global pandemic has changed the axis of our universe – what was disruptive before is now potentially massively transformative, and Jim’s talk provided a pathway forward
McKinsey: a keynote for a private, invitation-only event for the CIOs and CFOs of the top 25 global life and property/casualty insurance companies. Held in the wake of the 2008 stock market/housing market collapse, the talk focused on the opportunities for growth in an economic downturn
Schneider Electric: with a focus on the Industrial Internet of Things within the product line for its manufacturing customers, it needed a detailed keynote outlining the opportunities for this future technological path, and chose Jim Carroll to deliver it
KPMG: multiple client-oriented events in multiple cities for industry verticals, including the insurance, healthcare, and technology practices, each featuring attendance from CxO-level representatives of major clients
T. Rowe Price: featured Jim at a major investment client event in Baltimore, sharing his insight with over 2,000 senior executives on future growth opportunities in the global economy
Nikon Japan: the dinner speaker for their 100th-anniversary gala dinner celebration in Tokyo, a major customer event
Baker McKenzie: a talk for major clients – mostly Chief Legal Officers or Chief Risk Officers for Fortune 500 companies – of one of the world’s largest law firms on the topic of the ‘future of risk’
Nestle Purina: 500 co-op clients, mostly farmers or within agricultural communities, with a keynote on how to deal with the potential ‘Amazonification’ of the agricultural feed and animal products industry, as well as insight on the future of agriculture
Aligntech: this global dental implant technology powerhouse arranged for Jim to speak to 500 key dental practice clients on post-pandemic strategies, how to innovate during a recession, and how to align to the massive acceleration of dental science
Microsoft: they’ve had him in speak at dozens of user groups and key customer events over the years, including participation as the keynote speaker for multiple-city customer roadshows
Hitachi Ventura: they invited Jim to outline the opportunity for digital transformation for CIOs of Fortune 100 companies
Computer Science Corporation: they took their most important clients to an event in St. Andrews, Scotland, for some intense discussion around the transformation and disruption of business. Thye invited Jim to provide the closing address on key strategies for moving forward in a time of acceleration
Ernst Young: they’ve booked Jim for multiple client-oriented events for industry verticals, including the healthcare and manufacturing industry sectors, each featuring attendance from CxO-level representatives of major clients
HP Mexico: CIOs of the largest Mexican private and public companies needed a talk on competing in the global economy; HP invited Jim in to share hsi insight on how our future world will unfold
Toshiba Australia: the impact of digital transformation and the acceleration of business – they featured Jim as their opening speaker for their most important annual event
Burger King: they had two speakers for their 2009 Global Franchise Conference – Leonard Nimoy (“Spock”) and Jim Carroll. One from the future, and one speaking about the future!
KOA Kampgrounds of America: what’s the future of camping and recreational vacations in the digital age? This iconic organization invited Jim to open its annual conference with a challenging message of opportunity.
These are just a few of the hundreds of such events Jim has spoken at. He has spoken at user group meetings for manufacturing companies, many franchise conferences, hi-tech customer events, and product launches, and within countless other industries. Each keynote is highly customized based on detailed research and is prepared in close alignment with the client to ensure his message fits within the overall strategic goal of the event.
Want to learn more? Contact Jim!
by JimCarroll
“At one time or another everyone thinks of a great idea that they will never pursue!” – Futurist Jim Carroll
Why are great ideas so often abandoned? Why do they die? Never see the light of day?
I often blame committees and the strategic planning process – these are the usual graveyards for great initiatives and bold opportunities!
And yet, there are many other reasons. The search for the lowest common denominator is common in groupthink. A corporate culture that rewards mediocrity. A risk-averse culture that has been battered and bruised by a previous failure without the use of that failure as a springboard for the next step. Overwhelming peer pressure in which it is often suggested that someone shouldn’t stand out from the crowd.
Then there is a complete lack of a skill set that can take an idea to completion – an organization might be an engine of creativity but lacks the runway for moving the idea into production, There might be lots of ideas to pursue but an inability to get the attention of leadership – call it ‘attention competition.’ The big problem is not a lack of ideas but the difficulty that the creative group faces in promoting those ideas in order that they can get proper attention, funding, and clearance.
Or consider conclusion bias, a mindset that can cloud the real potential purpose – the idea might apply to one form of thinking but if tweaked just a bit might lead to something totally different. Simply do a search for ‘accidental innovation’ and you’ll find that history is full of examples of R&D that was meant for one purpose but then turned into something else altogether. (Velcro!)
In some other cases, the organization doesn’t have a process by which the original thinker or ‘lone wolf’ can transition their solitary brilliance into an organizational opportunity. A culture does not exist in which individual ideas can be shared, nurtured, and pushed into the corporate idea factory. In other cases, those with the idea simply don’t know who to turn to in order to get it moving forward. Original, creative thinkers end up abandoning the organization to move into a far more fruitful innovative group.
Last but not least, there is an awful situation in which great ideas are beaten to the ground through a corporate mindset that is engineered to kill great ideas in their tracks. The idea is met with skepticism, disbelief, or hostility. The creator is told that it is a dumb idea, that it won’t work, and that it is doomed to fail. it’s too radical an idea – it doesn’t fit the ‘current mold.’ It can’t move forward, they are told, because the outcome is too uncertain and doesn’t fit the current reality.
All of these situations can lead to a sad situation in which great ideas are abandoned, tossed aside, and relegated to the trash heap of missed opportunities and futile missteps. The idea runs into a culture in which new ideas are treated as dangerous, and so hostility and resistance rule the day. Or even worse, it is assigned to an incompetent development team who then pummels the idea into failure.
How do you deal with this sad state of affairs? That’s one of the great mysteries of the innovative organization – but it really comes down to a simple thing: a leader who is willing to pursue big and bold ideas, and who creates a culture in which they are nurtured, shared, and developed. They are the ‘world-class innovators’, and if you aren’t prepared to study what they know, you won’t move forward.
Bottom line? Great ideas see the light of day because those who generate the great idea have the courage and fortitude to move forward in the face of great resistance!
by JimCarroll
The future is all about the acceleration of new skills, knowledge, and careers – and you’d better be ready for what it represents!
And yet, while providing massive opportunities to organizations that align with the trend – the future is also perceived by many in the ‘old guard’ as a threat. I described this in another keynote a few weeks back to an executive-level audience:
This point goes to another one of my key observations: “Some people see the future and see a threat. Innovators see the same future and see an opportunity.”
Which person are you?
by JimCarroll
“65% of kids in preschool today will work in jobs or careers that do not yet exist!” – Futurist Jim Carroll
It’s interesting to be a futurist and to live through the very predictions that you made many years ago. That’s something that is occurring right now with my 29-year-old son Willie – today, he works in a career as a drone pilot, a field that did not actually exist when I first made this prediction almost 25 years ago. In effect, he’s a ‘location intelligence professional,’ a career that first entered my trends radar shortly after he was born – helping align a traditional building-inspection/forensics firm to a new and different future.
Today, my “65% observation” is still the go-to opening phrase in every keynote I do, as seen in this clip from a few weeks ago at an event I spoke at in London, England. Today, not only do I get to challenge the audience to think about the implications of this trend – but I have them understand that we are now witnessing the fast future happen before our very eyes.
The 65% observation is one of ‘3 key statistics’ that I use to open every keynote opening sequence – the other two being that half the knowledge in any degree program is obsolete by graduation, and the typical product today (I’m now using a car dashboard) is obsolete within 3-5 years of the first release. Statistics like these (which are also entirely accurate) are attention grabbers, mindset-shapers that immediately let the audience know that they need to buckle up and buckle in for the era of fast. (An interesting sidebar – for a time, the world of academia debated my 65% statistic demanding accuracy in its observation. Today, in the era of fake news and falsified information, this type of debate seems somehow, fondly quaint.)
What’s leading to these new careers? The reality of knowledge and skills – new knowledge is appearing at a furious pace while old knowledge is going out of date faster than ever before. This, combined with the technological transformation of industries, means that old careers become irrelevant faster, while new careers now appear at a blistering pace. And so, as an example, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that the field of rocket science is now wildly diverse with thousands of specialized careers within a vast new industrial enterprise as the space industry is increasingly commercialized.
How does a futurist like me figure out the future? In the case of new careers and the example of the ‘location intelligence professional,’ I can relate my observation to three things that occurred simultaneously in 1997:
Boom! I had found a trend of great significance, reinforcing much of what I was already witnessing. Over time, this led to a lot of stage work centered around new carers, specifically using the ‘location intelligence’ career.
Today, if you think about it, my drone pilot son has become the very location-intelligence professional that I posited many, many years ago. Among many other things, he can perform a flight of a facility with a sophisticated infrared camera, and analyze the detailed GPS-oriented information to conduct a detailed heat loss analysis. His work is based on new technology, advanced skills, and extremely discrete information that is very location aware. He’s been busy training others within his company on this new skill set – a commercial building and forensic inspection firm – on how to exploit this new skill – in effect, building an air force!
What does the reality of new careers and skills lead to? At a recruitment conference in Belgium earlier this year, I made this observation: “You are going to need to recruit people for jobs not yet in existence based on skills not yet developed and you need to do this yesterday!”
The future is all about the acceleration of new skills, knowledge, and careers – and you’d better be ready for what it represents! As an aside, the very existence of new jobs and careers – while providing massive opportunities to organizations that align with the trend – is also perceived by many in the ‘old guard’ as a threat. I described this in another keynote a few weeks back to an executive-level audience:
This point goes to another one of my key observations: “Some people see the future and see a threat. Innovators see the same future and see an opportunity.”
Which person are you?
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