Nice, neat, concise two page summary that I put together in 2006,that puts in perspective what’s really going to happen with health care in the next few years. Spend 20 seconds to read it, and you’ll get everything that is going on right now.
It’s a PDF – click it for the full file (2 pages!)
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I often wonder if the discussion about health care in many parts of the Western world has come off the rails – with the result that many opportunities for real innovation are not being pursued.
That’s the focus of quite a number of keynotes I’ll be giving in the next few weeks, including for the American Association of Preferred Provider Organizations annual conference in Jacksonville, the 2012 National Pharmacy Forum in Tampa for the Healthcare Supply Chain Association, and a private leadership event for the Mercy healthcare group based in St. Louis.
One of my key messages is that it’s time for bold thinking, big actions, and new ideas in the world of healthcare — and that can only be accomplished if people change the conversation.
What’s the problem? I think that many in the system are stuck in sort of a groundhog day like existence — they get up every morning, and everyone around them keeps talking about the same old thing as the day before — in the US, healthcare reform. In Canada, the discussion is all about wait times. In other countries, the issue of the future of healthcare often swirls around a single issue.
The result is that real healthcare innovation is stifled, smothered, and never given a chance to flourish. Yet there is so much other opportunity if we link ourselves to the major trends that are going to unfold in the future at a furious, blinding velocity.
We need big thinking, because the health care cliff in the Western world is massive. In many countries, we’ve got a ratio of workers to retirees of 4 to 1. By 2030, that will decline to 2 to 1. Most of those workers support the health care expenditures of those who place the greatest demands on the health care system. In Canada it’s suggested that as a result, by 2030, Old Age Security and health care is likely to suffer a $71.2 billion shortfall that will require a GST of 19% and a top tax rate of 71%. In the US, the numbers are even more mind-boggling.
The fact is, we need big, bold thinking, Grand ideas. Dramatic change. Champions with courage to challenge the status quo. The need is desperate.
That’s what I take a look at in my keynotes, by looking at where we will be in the world of health care by 2020. The changes are massive — which implies the opportunities for real innovation are unprecedented. Consider the trends:
That and much, much more. The fact is, we are going to witness more change in the world of health care in the next ten years than we have seen in the last 200.
That’s the message that has resonated with the global audiences that have been bringing me in to challenge them to think about the real opportunities for innovation in the world of health care. And through that, I’m discovering experts, politicians and people within the health care system who really are thinking big enough about the potential opportunities for real innovation within the system.
Think big. Do great things. Accomplish massive change. The need is dire, the urgency is fast.
Back in January 2000, I wrote an article for my weekly Globe & Mail column, that put in perspective the battles brewing between Hollywood and the computer industry.
The opening statement was particularly spot on, in light of the SOPA battles of today: “Decades from now, people will characterize the early years of the 21st century as a period dominated by a battle between the corporate entertainment world and the computer geeks.”
The article was pretty prescient; yet at the time, one could have almost predicted that the SOPA / PIPA of battle today would continue.
The article is worth a read. Enjoy.
You can view the original PDF on the right.
For what its’ worth, my money is still on the geeks (you’ll see a comment below.) I think part of what is clearly happening here is a transitioning of the corporate entertainment world from baby-boomers who have never really understood the technology opportunity, to a younger generation who truly gets it.
On the one hand, we’ve got the head of the MPAA, former Senator Chris Dodd. I don’t he could explain what the DNS is, what it does, and why it’s important. ‘
On the other hand, we have the young Rep. Darrell Issa in the House of Representatives. He’s a computer gamer, young computer geek who gets it. He took to a gaming bulletin board to announce his opposition to the bills.
In the longer term, old guys like Dodds won’t be around to push around the future much anymore. Young guys like Issa will be the politicians of tomorrow.
There’s hope yet.
(And I suppose I am old guy. I’m 52. But I’ve been online since 1982. I’m a geek. I get it.)
With all the recent merger frenzy, it’s become obvious that the corporate types have finally clued in to the Internet, e-biz and e-commerce. Yet to their horror, they realize that while fabulous opportunities exist on-line, a Pandora’s box of challenges has also emerged. In particular, it seems that they can no longer control the distribution of their products.
I’d hazard a guess that given the flurry of recent lawsuits, some media moguls have decided that the only way to deal with the Internet is to sue anyone and everyone who is challenging their business models.
The music industry has been busy suing various groups involved with MP3, the music format that makes it easy to distribute digital forms of music. The movie, television and entertainment industries are busy suing Toronto-based on-line broadcaster iCraveTV.com, charging it with “brazen theft.”
There are new lawsuits against computer geeks who have managed to figure out how to get around the copy protection scheme found on DVD-ROMs, which is arguably the hottest new entertainment technology on the planet.
Things are getting nasty: Just the other day, a 16-year-old Norwegian kid who figured out the mathematical equations behind the DVD code found the police banging at his door.
A battle royal is under way, and it’s fascinating entertainment. On one side, we have the entertainment companies, finally ready to take advantage of the opportunities of the wired world, and ready to use lawyers to defend their turf.
On the other side, there’s a ragtag army of computer geeks, bound by the global reach of the Internet, and impassioned by their collective distaste for anything that puts constraints on how they might use their computers.
I don’t know about you, but my money is on the geeks.
Regardless of the deep, troubling and complex issues at work here, the reality is that the folks who control the computer code will be the ones who will control the future. Any attempts to prevent the distribution of information by legal means in this digital world — whether it be music, movies or television signals — will ultimately be doomed to failure.
To understand why, you need to immerse yourself in the mindset of the technical community, instead of simply pondering the press releases from the other side.
One of the best starting points is to visit Slashdot (http://slashdot.org) — it uses the tag line “News For Nerds. Stuff that Matters.” It’s a geek perspective on the issues of the day, including the many legal battles. (Investors take note: It is probably also the best place to understand new technologies before they come out. The entire Slashdot community knew what Transmeta was up to before any public announcement was made.)
Often weird, slightly adolescent, extremely irreverent and often not understandable, it is still a goldmine of information as to how the Internet of the future will shape up.
There are countless other sites similar to SlashDot. Techdirt (http://techdirt.com) is but another example of these on-line communities.
You come to realize that all these lawsuits are viewed as nothing more than an amusing challenge to the geek community. The on-line mindset, when confronted by a legal letter or restrictive computer code, is to play a version of a popular quiz TV show. “I can crack that secret code in three steps, Alex,” goes the response to the challenge.
Instant communities, such as OpenDVD (http://www.opendvd.org/), are emerging in which the geeks passionately defend their right to open up technology or share information — and where they counter the PR spin from the corporate or entertainment world. This community often acts in bad taste, poking fun at the futility of lawsuits in the digital age.
I just visited a Web site and bought a T-shirt that contains the entire secret DVD code printed on the back.
What chance does Hollywood have in this battle, when its crown jewels are protected by a mathematical equations that can be printed on the back of a T-shirt once the geek community has figured it out?
Jim Carroll is co-author of Light Bulbs to Yottabits: How to Profit by Understanding the Internet of the Future, and can be reached by E-mail at [email protected]
You will have no doubt discovered that a good portion of “the Internet” is protesting what is a fundamentally poorly thought out, and most likely dangerous, Act(s) proposed by the US Congress – SOPA and PIPA.
These Acts would essentially hand over power to the US government to effectively censor and shut down any Web site in the world. Regardless of where that site happens to be, and regardless of the law that site is subject to. The US Attorney General could, on a simple complaint, take action that would provide little recourse to anyone affected.
Effectively, as I understand it, the bills would in effect place complete power in the hands of the US government to fundamentally censor and control any information appearing on the Internet. Seriously. If you think this through, that is what it leads to.
The STOP SOPA campaign is not led by a series of wing-nuts or lefties or whack-jobs or people with an axe to grind. It is a grassroots campaign by people throughout the US, and increasingly around the world, who understand what is at stake here.
The proposed Acts are fundamentally wrong, dangerous, and without getting into rhetoric, the biggest danger to global freedom in many years. That is why there is such a fuss going on.
I’ve been online since 1982 – long before the Internet really became the Internet. I’ve been in awe of the power of global connectivity for 30 years.
I am in a state of shock that proposals such as SOPA and PIPA could make it even this far. We have in our hands the tool that will help to take us into the future — and we are in a situation in which the innovation opportunities that this tool can be taken away at a whim. That is not an understatement – that is a reality.
What can you do? Get involved. Learn what is going on.
I’m trying to in my own small way. I thought about shutting JimCarroll.com down for the day to join the protest.
But that would not be helpful – not too many would notice.
But I do get a lot of visitors – including you. So please, please, take the time to understand what is at stake here.
I encourage you to visit the link at the top right of every Web page throughout JimCarroll.com – Stop SOPA. The small banner you see up there? Click it — read it – participate.
Take the time to learn about these proposed Acts of the US Congress — understand why they are wrong — and realize that the protest is not some ill-advised idea by a bunch of ‘computer companies’ or ‘computer geeks’ or other characterizations.
The Internet, in being perhaps the most important invention of humankind, is too important to be subjected to frivolous, ill-informed, ignorant and polticially-expedient decisions by people who really don’t know what they are doing. The US Congress proposals are just plain, simple, bad laws.
I believe the Obama administration got it right. “While we believe that online piracy by foreign websites is a serious problem that requires a serious legislative response, we will not support legislation that reduces freedom of expression, increases cybersecurity risk, or undermines the dynamic, innovative global Internet.”
Stop SOPA / PIPA.
I think when someone looks back 10 years from now, they’ll realize that really aggressive innovation in the global healthcare industry really began in 2012. That’s because the scope of the problem is so “BIG.”
The scope of the challenge everywhere – the focus of a keynote I undertook in Munich in July. I opened a private event in for a major health care organization — and spoke to the stark reality of some of the trends we face. Consider the issue of wellness and lifestyle disease:
Here’s a clip from that talk in Munich.
On a conference call with a client, the issue of optimism and pessimism came up. For many of the corporate or customer events in which I’m asked to speak, people are seeking my insight on the trends that will provide for future growth. In the call, I mentioned one recent keynote where I made a joke on stage about choosing optimism over innovation – in a bit of a unique way.
But my optimism is grounded by the trends I observe. In this short clip, you’ll also see a lead-in to how I plan to build the case for optimism.
It’s a short, good watch, I think with a key relevant point — and begs the question — are you able to consciously choose optimism over pessimism, despite the environment that you might find yourself in?
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