So we flew in a private plane to Sherbrooke, Quebec, and this happened!

by JimCarroll
So we flew in a private plane to Sherbrooke, Quebec, and this happened!

by JimCarroll
“Make more of the moments that matter!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

This was a selfie I took yesterday at the airport in Sherbrooke, Quebec, yesterday, just moments after the conclusion of the full totality portion of the 2024 eclipse. To say that I was a bit overwhelmed by the experience would be an understatement – as would seem to be the case with everyone there, and all of the millions who made their way to the path.
I tried to immerse myself within the moment, rather than spending a lot of time trying to film and record the event, having read and listened to a few reports from various eclipse veterans. But my good friend and pilot of our adventure, Osama Arafat, did manage to catch the moment in all its glory.

I won’t try to wax poetic about what I witnessed and the beauty of the moment, other than to say it far exceeded all of my expectations. I am so thrilled to have put in the effort and drawn upon the information resources I had to end up at a tiny little airport in Southern Quebec, traveling there in a private plane.
My original plan was to head down to Fort Erie to visit a close friend; however, a health issue that emerged for him last week put this out of the line of action. Not only that, but the weather forecast for the region started to look pretty dismal.
For days, I’d been relying on every powerful cloud prediction model available, obsessing over the potential accuracy of a difficult weather forecast. I ended up relying on a fantastic site that a Ph.D. in meteorological science had put together that gave detailed, up-to-date forecasts for every city along the path.

I began to look at options – it was becoming evident that Southern Ontario might not be the best-case scenario. The weather models told me, “Go east, young man!” So I began working on options. I bought a train ticket to Kingston, Ontario, and a flight to Fredericton, New Brunswick, the weather forecast carefully.
And then, on Saturday, I sent a text to my good friend Osama – we go back some 30 years when I wrote his company – an Internet service provider – into the 2nd edition of our Canadian Internet Handbook, and a year later, did a custom ‘mini-book;’ with him that included a floppy disk (!) that people could use to sign up online. Osama went on to build a cloud server company after that project and did very, very well. He also took up flying as a side project and hobby, flying charters, personal trips, and medevacs. He told me he had no real plans, but that I wanted to go somewhere to see it, and he’d be pleased to get me there.
I swung into action – it was back to the weather maps, and Sherbrooke, Quebec, kept staring at me with blinking lights, with all the models almost giving a guarantee of clear skies in this region in Southern Quebec.

And away we went on his TBM-850 – the fastest, highest-altitude single-engine turboprop in production – on a fast, one-hour flight at 28,000 feet, landing at this small, usually sleepy regional airport.

And it was wild, bustling with activity, as it seemed a lot of private pilots came to the same weather conclusion that I had! There were dozens and dozens of arrivals of private aircraft of every size, shape, and form – we only managed to get in by the seat of our pants, getting a tarmac reservation at the last moment before it filled up. There were now 4 of us involved in this adventure, with another buddy of Osama’s flying in from Toronto on his helicopter with 5 others – because he couldn’t get ramp space for his jet!

The scene was indescribable – with perhaps one of my favorite moments when this jet came in from New York City, a couple of families tumbled out – and proceeded to set up an eclipse picnic right at the edge of the tarmac.

And with all that – what a day, what a moment, and what an experience.
As they say, it’s one that I will never forget – and I am so glad that I put in the effort, with the help of my good friend, to make a moment that matters, matter more!
by JimCarroll
“Your potential lies on the other side of your inaction!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

I regularly meet people who are stuck.
Often they are trapped in situations in which they are doing things they don’t want to do and are chasing the same excuses every day about why they want to escape and set themselves free.
Yet they never do. They end up defining their future by their inaction rather than their initiative.
One of the worst things you can ever do when it comes to aligning to tomorrow is to let your inaction drive your decisions – the only way to move forward is actually to make the steps to go there.But what is holding you back? Fear of failure? Could the dread of disappointment be paralyzing you? Do you doubt your ability to succeed? Is it the warm embrace of your comfort zone, your safe space, or the fact that doing nothing drives your decisions? Are you endlessly procrastinating, deferring the decisions that might get you moving? Are you overthinking each step of your escape, letting analysis paralysis guide your inaction?
Maybe you should do an inaction inventory. Identify the uncertainties that are immobilizing you, the negative self-talk that chips away at your confidence. Is it fear of the unknown? Lack of resources? Self-doubt? People around you are negative influences, feeding you the message that what you are thinking about can’t be done.
Moving forward can often be overwhelming – but standing still, in the long run, will be even more overwhelming because you will come to define yourself by your inaction rather than your initiative.
It’s Motivation Monday, folks! Get motivated, and get moving!
by JimCarroll
“Yesterday’s ideas won’t work for you tomorrow!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

Someone asked me yesterday about my comment that Chinese automotive companies will likely own the automotive industry of the future.
Sadly, I think that it is true – the reason for that being that most auto manufacturers seem to continue to be busy fighting the battles of the last century, using product designs, ideas, and concepts involving the vehicle architecture of that era. The other automotive company that has the opportunity to own the industry in the 21st century has a CEO in place who has no focus on the battle ahead.
Case in point? How about this:
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, has since been a frequent EV skeptic, funding misleading advertisements, and lobbying against government policies that promote them around the world.
How Three High-Tech Countries Became Laggards in Electric Vehicles,
Japan, South Korea and the US have fallen behind their peers in EV adoption — despite meeting the criteria to be frontrunners.
Blooomberg, April 4, 2024
I could dig out a zillion articles like this from my research service that play into this theme, but why bother? Many folks have an ingrained belief that the dominant companies of the 20th century will be the dominant ones of the 21st. It’s their right!
Rather than doing that, I went into one of my research services and dug out this article from 1962.
Read it, and think about where we are today.

Market for Buggy Whips Diminishes
Morning Sentinel, Waterville Maine, December 29, 1962
The market for buggy whips has diminished to a tiny fraction of what it once was. The formerly flourishing industry has been hard hit by decreased demand and foreign imports.
Manufacturers of buggy whips report steadily declining profits.
At the risk of anti-trust prosecution, they have formed the Association of Buggy Whip Manufactured of America so that they might petition Washington for aid with a stronger voice.
The employees whose livelihood is threatened are represented by the Amalgamated Buggy Whip Braiders of America. They insist they must have a further pay raise to match the increased cost of living. So the Buggy Whpe makers squeezed between increased costs and decreased demand, have petitioned Washington for a subsidy.
The manufacturers of buggy whips ask that the government agree to purchase and stockpile all buggy whips not absorbed through regular market channels. And that the government agrees to pay 90% of the party price for such buggy whips.
Further, the A.O.B.W.M asks the government for long-term, low-interest loans for the purposes of purchasing new machinery, expanding operations, and increasing production.
‘The union, In a parallel petition, reminds the President and the Congress that the Amalgamated| Buggy Whip Braiders represents| a solid bloc of votes and Wat bloc can be even more impressive if expansion plans are expedited.
The Association further states that, though the present demand for buggy whips is negligible, a serious situation might develop in the event of a national emergency if our nation should be the only nation with an inadequate backlog of buggy whips.
Further, if the buggy whip industry is allowed to atrophy and fail, the stability of our wage-price structure would be seriously threatened. The gross national product would be affected. Unemployment would be increased. Government tax revenue from this source would be sharply reduced.
The Association of Buggy Whp Manufacturers recognizes that their labor force is comparably a minority. But asks, “Is it not the essence of our American Way of Life that we recognize our obligation to minorities?” The buggy whip braiders ask night more nor less than a fair shake, a square deal, as much consideration as the next fellow
The slogan of the Association of Bugy Whip Manufacturers of America is, “Progress is Our Most Important Contribution to the Nation.”
Americans, you read through most of the above — perhaps all of it — unaware that it was a literary invention intended as satire.
I come away from reading this article with three conclusions:
The future doesn’t like old ideas. It likes new ones. Find them, and chase them.
That is all.
by JimCarroll
“Erratic leadership will always bring erratic results, but distracted leadership is guaranteed to bring even worse” – Futurist Jim Carroll

Jim Balsillie wanted to buy himself an NHL hockey team and wasted away precious time with his company RIM – the home of the Blackberry – while Apple was busy redefining the future with the iPhone. Elon Musk went and bought a once-popular social network so that he could feed his ego and pursue some grandiose ideas about free speech, all the while ignoring the fact that Tesla was going from being the world’s most advanced car company to becoming, potentially not far away an industry afterthought.
Did you see the Tesla quarter? Missed sales targets, declining revenue, stalled innovation, lower demand despite ongoing rebates, and an absentee CEO? All in the face of a forthcoming Chinese EV juggernaut with new models that are more than just competitive on price, feature set, range, and more.
History is littered with the remains of companies where the CEOs took their eye off the ball, lost the plot, or failed to show up. You can be an erratic leader of a company, moving from crisis to crisis, situation to situation, shiny new object to shiny new object, strategy to strategy, and still recover. But once you become distracted, the future becomes a whole different animal.
It’s all a part of the dread disease of CEO Hubris, a topic I’ve covered here at length – you can find my main post at https://hubris.jimcarroll.com – along with
I need to add ‘distracted leadership’ to this list – but check the last item. “A belief they will never fail – until they do.”
Distracted leadership matters most when a runway to certain success is quickly becoming a goat path to potential ruin. I used to think that Tesla had done such powerfully innovative stuff that it would be able to maintain a long-term lead in the automotive industry – but I no longer believe this to be the case. It’s not just that other auto manufacturers are slowly catching up in the car-as-a-technology platform business, where the vehicle becomes a big battery on wheels. It’s not the fact that the EV industry is going through the twists and turns of fast growth and short, sharp shocks of demand decline as the industry barrels into an inevitable future.
It’s the fact that it is becoming pretty evident that Chinese EV manufacturers are pretty likely to own the global automotive industry in but 10 short years. The level of innovation, the quality of the product, the price point, the feature set – if you track what these organizations are up to, you will come to realize that a massive industry shift is well underway.
In the coming years, you are going to hear a lot about automotive brands like Xaimoi, BYD, and Huwai. There will be raging trade wars and political initiatives as the North American auto industry, unions, and politicians try to fight against an inevitable future – one they perhaps lost a long time ago through inaction. Today, the situation has become even worse as the issue of electric vehicle technology has become a flashpoint in our current political insanity. The North American automotive industry will decline simply because people have decided that they might be able to win more votes by cheering on the buggy-whip industry when the horseless carriage has arrived.
The result? There will be much gnashing of teeth as people come to realize that a once-dominant industry is in obvious and permanent decline. And there will be great consternation as folks realize that perhaps the worst thing was that a once heroic CEO managed to become a zero through massively distracted leadership.
Yesterday, I read the most recent Lefsetz Letter, Tesla sales plunge. Bob Lefsetz is a fellow I’ve been following for almost 30 years. His main focus has always been coverage of the music and entertainment industries, but he also regularly dives into the larger issues that surround us. He’s one of the most brilliant writers – and one of the most realistic individuals I know when it comes to disruptive change. He just provided his views on Tesla, and I’ll share his post in its entirety below.
The future can survive erratic leaders.
But when they become fully, completely distracted, it’s another game altogether.
“Tesla sales plunge far more than expected”: https://t.ly/1FSIB
A first mover advantage only gives you a head start, to maintain it you must continue to improve to stay ahead of the pack.
Tesla is selling old vehicles in a world where the new is everything. Elon Musk wants you to buy a Model T when the competition is selling spaceships. That’s Detroit’s core competence, exterior design. As for interiors and engineering, the Germans dominate here.
Needless to say, Volkswagen bumbled its early start in electric vehicles by not getting software right, by approaching its development like physical items. Software needs a single team and oftentimes fewer developers are better. VW had multiple teams, had to change overseers and its first autos had to be shipped sans features because they couldn’t get the software right.
As for BMW… It was early, then hit the brakes, but in the decade since the introduction of the Model S, BMW has now turned its efforts around:
“BMW Is a Surprise Winner in Electric Vehicles”: https://t.ly/McKp1
Now in truth, when it comes to luxury vehicles, most are leased. Meaning someone might have started out with a Tesla, but after three years they want something different. And for a long while there were no real options, but now there are. Furthermore, the BMWs and MBZs are far more luxurious, the Tesla interiors are still spartan.
As for software… Musk’s self-driving software has been riddled with accidents and bad decisions, like not using LIDAR. Not everything Musk does is correct. And despite the introduction of a new system just recently, it is expensive and perception of the public is negative and perception is everything, just ask Joe Biden. And you have to pay attention anyway, not to mention that other manufacturers are gaining in self-driving.
And then there’s price. Despite Tesla’s lowering of cost to consumers, in China there are cheaper alternatives. And BYD and its brethren can introduce a new model in less than two years. Meanwhile, Musk over-promises and under-delivers. The new cheap Tesla? Keep waiting. Hell, the Cybertruck few wanted took years to finally come to market, which is like promising new housing and only building a high end needle skyscraper years late.
And then there’s Stellantis, which says its EVs are now profitable. Which is a black mark on GM and Ford, who just can’t get it right.
“Why Stellantis’s CEO Remains All-In on EVs as Others Retrench”: https://apple.news/ASZQPI5ITTF-eHdWaPZab7g
Needless to say, there’s an anti-EV drumbeat, led by the “Wall Street Journal” and the right. But for all those winter charging stories… Turns out most people charge at home and no one ever talks about gas car batteries dying in winter, cars not starting, which you know all about if you’ve ever lived north of the Mason-Dixon Line.
And you can’t fight progress. Remember all the people who said they wouldn’t give up their CDs? That MP3s sounded inferior? That they had to own things?
Change happens, and oftentimes the mainstream customer wakes up last. Worst is when the customer wakes up before the industry, which is what happened in music, with Napster. You’ve got to be a shark in business, never sleeping, always improving.
And in what kind of world can you have your CEO so distracted? Running a car company is a full-time job.
And then there’s Musk’s identity/personality. Tesla was a cult, new cars were sold by old customers testifying. Now you don’t want to testify because you’re going to be inundated with Elon hate. You stay quiet. In today’s multifarious world selling is done bottom-up, not top-down. There are just too many messages for yours to gain traction. What you need are acolytes, spreading the word.
What happens to Tesla? Right now it’s too valuable for another manufacturer to swallow it. Maybe there can be a merger. Because Tesla’s software is still valuable, and could be put to good use by a competitor. Tesla’s core competency has always been software, not manufacturing. Apple doesn’t manufacture most of its products, why should Tesla?
And the bottom line is the U.S. is moribund. While we fight tribal wars, China and the rest of the world are taking great leaps forward. If you think everything starts and grows in the U.S. today, you’re plain wrong. Electric vehicles are surging in China and in Europe. It’s only a matter of when you drive an electric car. Do you even have a CD player anymore?
If you are an industry leader, you cannot rest on your laurels. You must continue to improve your product or others will eat your lunch, especially if there are legacy competitors who are given time to wake up.
We’ve learned this again and again in tech, where what you did yesterday does not matter today. Microsoft fell asleep. But now it has pivoted into storage a la AWS. Suddenly Apple is behind the eight ball on AI. How come Microsoft saw the future and Tim Cook did not?
This applies to all verticals. You might be a leader today, but you must continue to innovate and risk to be a leader tomorrow. And image is everything. You mess with it at your peril.
by JimCarroll
“Anything can be accomplished with courage!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

I drew a blank this morning.
Most days, I pull together the next day’s quote the previous day and then spend some time thinking about what I’m thinking about. For some reason, I didn’t manage to do that yesterday – the result being that as I started my day today, I went into my mindset folder of unused quotes (it’s in Gmail) to find something to think about. And I found this one – ‘anything can be accomplished with courage.’ It looks like I sent it to myself on December 21, 2021 – I don’t remember the context of the time, but obviously, something was on my mind!
Courage? If that’s the theme, here’s a key thought for the day – “Courage is the secret to strength!,” something I shared way back in 2019.

Courage? Anything can be accomplished with courage – it’s the thing that gives you the power, strength, and fortitude to push through those tough times.
But it’s not just the tough times that you need to draw upon your reserves of courage – you need it in your everyday life. All of us are being buffeted by change, disruption, volatility, and uncertainty – it always seems relentless. That’s why every morning, it might be a good idea to fortify ourselves with our secret weapon – our courage to continue to face the unknown, battle the ambiguity, and innovate our way through it.
We need to make sure that we always dare to buck the status quo, dismiss the naysayers, and make big bold steps.
To do that, we need to draw on our courage reserve – and then take a deep breath, and dive into the deep end, both eyes open.
Because even when you have nothing, you always have something – your courage!



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