JimCarroll

More than 700 local executives gathered in Oklahoma City for a Chamber of Commerce luncheon where I was asked to take a look beyond the political noise of the moment and answer a much more useful question:

Where is the global economy actually headed?

It was November 2017.

Much of the public conversation in the United States was consumed by the never-ending political drama coming out of Washington.

But senior business leaders still had companies to run.

Investments to make.

People to hire.

Markets to understand.

And futures to plan.

The Oklahoma City Chamber brought me in to focus on those issues.

My keynote explored more than 20 trends creating opportunity in the global economy.

The purpose was not to predict politics.

It was to identify the structural trends that would continue moving regardless of the headlines.

That distinction matters.

News cycles are immediate.

Economic transformation is deeper.

A region can spend all of its time reacting to the story of the day — or it can pay attention to the forces that will shape growth over the next decade.

Oklahoma City made the second choice.

That was particularly relevant because this was oil and energy country.

Energy had been central to the regional economy.

But the energy sector itself was changing.

Grid parity was approaching.

The electrical grid was becoming smarter.

Cars were moving toward electrification.

Microgrids were gaining importance.

The broader economy was being reshaped by new technology and new industries.

The question for any region built around an established economic strength is what happens when that strength begins to change.

Six themes framed the opportunity:

1. Energy Transformation. The energy economy was changing as new technologies altered generation, distribution and consumption.

1. Grid Parity. The economics of alternative energy technologies were steadily improving relative to traditional sources.

1. Smart Grids. Electricity infrastructure was becoming more connected, intelligent and responsive.

1. Electric Vehicles. Transportation electrification would create new demand, infrastructure needs and industrial opportunity.

1. Microgrids. More localized energy systems were beginning to alter traditional assumptions about how power is generated and managed.

1. Economic Diversification. Regions built around strong legacy industries needed to align themselves with the next wave of global growth rather than simply defend the old one.

That final issue was the most important.

Economic development is often framed around what a region already has.

Existing industries.

Existing employers.

Existing infrastructure.

Existing expertise.

But long-term prosperity depends just as much on understanding what is coming next.

The industries that created yesterday’s growth do not automatically create tomorrow’s.

Some evolve.

Some shrink.

Some are transformed by technology.

And entirely new industries emerge.

The strategic task is to identify those shifts early enough to participate in them.

That was the message I brought to Oklahoma City.

Do not let political noise obscure economic reality.

Do not confuse today’s headlines with tomorrow’s opportunity.

And do not assume that because an industry has been important in the past, its future will look exactly the same.

Some people cling to an old economy.

Others position themselves for the new one.

The difference is foresight.

The future of economic growth belongs to the regions that understand where opportunity is going before everyone else gets there.