JimCarroll

“AI is the invisible architect dissolving computing into  the very fabric of our lives.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

Computing is no longer confined to screens and devices-it’s vanishing into our physical world. Smart sensors embedded in walls adjust lighting based on your mood, while Al-powered fabrics in clothing monitor health metrics without your awareness. Voice assistants anticipate needs without being summoned, and autonomous vehicles make thousands of decisions invisibly.

This ambient intelligence creates an ecosystem where technology serves us without demanding our attention-the ultimate expression of Al’s integration into human experience.

Good or bad? You be the judge – because it’s arriving already, sooner than you think.

This trend is kind of near and dear to my heart since I’ve been speaking and writing about it for almost three decades – albeit in the context of what I call “hyperconnectivity.” And back in 2000, in one of the many Internet-related books I was writing at the time, I introduced the concept of the “IP-chip”—a visionary idea of a computer microchip with built-in Internet capabilities, designed to enable seamless global communication between everyday devices.

I took the liberty of feeding a chapter from one of my books from 1999 – Light Bubs to Yottabits – to an AI app to summarize what I covered, and what I missed. You can access the full PDF here. It’s an interesting read!

This wasn’t just about connecting gadgets; it was about embedding the Internet’s universal language, Internet Protocol (IP), directly into the fabric of our world. My predictions (and obviously I wasn;’t the only one making this one)  proved remarkably prescient, laying the conceptual groundwork for what we now widely recognize as the Internet of Things (IoT).

My prediction was that these IP-chips would be “imminent” and would “invade your home or office in unprecedented numbers” within a decade, fundamentally shifting Internet access away from a primary reliance on personal computers. I envisioned a future where:

• Microwaves would perfectly pop popcorn by querying online databases.
• Refrigerators would email for repairs.
• Cars would wirelessly sync data with home networks.
• Even infrastructure, like bridges and highways, would become “Internet-aware,” reporting real-time data.

Fast forward to 2025, and this vision of hyper-connectivity is undeniably our reality.

We’re living in a world where computing is indeed disappearing into the environment around us, embedded in countless devices without screens or keyboards, creating seamless interactions. How big a trend is it? The global IoT market is now valued at over $1 trillion, with more than 18 billion connected devices actively in use, from smart home appliances to industrial sensors. The IP chip’s promise of low cost and ubiquity has also largely materialized, making these “net devices” an expected, integrated feature of modern life.

But that’s only the first step. We’re now about to integrate AI directly into all of these ‘smart devices,’ promising to make them ‘smarter.’ Good or bad? Will it make them better or worse? A great idea of a massive mistake? Debate rages.

Even so, it’s going to happen, My original predictions suggested that these devices would possess a degree of “intelligence,” but I didn’t anticipate the massive acceleration of all trends related to AI. Thinking about it now, it seems that AI will provide the “brain” for this vast network of connected devices, transforming mere connectivity into true “smartness.” This integration, now referred to as AIoT, enables devices to learn from data, make autonomous decisions, and automate tasks at a scale and speed far beyond what we can do. It allows for real-time data analysis, informed decision-making, and continuous performance improvement by learning from patterns.

Where will this lead? Here are a few examples of where we are already:

• Personalized Automation: AI-powered thermostats and smart plugs will learn user habits to optimize heating, cooling, and lighting, leading to significant energy savings.
• Seamless Interaction: Voice assistants, enhanced by Natural Language Processing (NLP), already allow us to control our smart home devices and manage daily routines hands-free, simply by talking tot them. This allows for natural human-machine interactions, making devices easier to use for everyone.
• Advanced Security and Safety: AI-driven cameras and alarms provide real-time video monitoring, motion detection, and even facial and object recognition, sending instant alerts to our mobile devices and integrating with emergency services.
• Predictive Maintenance: AI analyzes vast amounts of IoT sensor data from urban infrastructure (like bridges, roads, water systems, and power grids) to detect potential failures before they occur, significantly reducing downtime and maintenance costs. Trucks report when they are going to break down, before they break down. This is a key application in manufacturing and logistics as well, with digital twins offering enhanced predictive insights.
• Smart Traffic Management: Systems optimize traffic flow by analyzing vehicle and pedestrian data, enabling dynamic lane changes, real-time adjustments to traffic signals, and instant hazard alerts, thereby reducing congestion and emissions.
• Environmental Monitoring: AI processes data from IoT sensors to monitor air quality, water pollution, and noise levels, providing actionable insights for urban planning and helping achieve sustainability goals.
• Hyper-Automation: AI and IoT combine to create autonomous systems that optimize workflows without human intervention across various industries, from manufacturing to supply chain management. In factories, the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) plays a major role in smart manufacturing systems.

Now layer AI into all that – and, as the song goes, it seems we’ve only just begun. The stunning acceleration of large language models and other technologies is leading us to a new world that involves a powerful feedback loop between AI, IoT, and data. The key thing to understand is that a lot of these devices are now simply going to ‘talk among themselves,’ to put it rather ineloquently.

Why? These billions of connected IoT devices generate massive amounts of data. This data is being processed by ever more advanced algorithms to create real-time insights, predictive capabilities, and automation. This symbiotic relationship means that as more IoT devices are deployed, they generate more data, which in turn improves AI models, making IoT devices smarter and more valuable, thereby driving further adoption. It’s an acceleration feedback loop.

The rapid rise of all these Large Language Models (LLMs), has transformed these devices far back from what I conceived many years ago. As these ‘IP-chip’ vision of hyper-connectivity blossoms into pervasive AIoT we stand at the threshold of its next, profound evolution. The acceleration feedback loop where billions of devices generate data that refines AI, making those devices even smarter, is leading us to a world that is increasingly aware and responsive.

Imagine devices around us that don’t just react, but anticipate. Examples? Homes that intuitively manage your well-being, cities that self-optimize for flow and sustainability, and even personal wearables that seamlessly integrate with your biological rhythms, all without a single tap or command. This isn’t just about technology disappearing; it’s about our world becoming a living, breathing, intelligent entity, an invisible architect of our future, constantly learning and evolving around us.

Whether we embrace it as utopia or navigate its complexities, it’s the inevitable next next phase. This world off ambient intelligence promises an existence where the digital and physical are indistinguishably woven, creating an experience that is both profoundly personal and universally interconnected.

Oh, and back to my original predictions from the 90s. How did I do?

Not bad, apparently!

“The only thing we know for certain about Al is that we don’t know exactly where we are going, but we are making great time.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

My book Dancing in the Rain features a list of 30 Megatrends. Some folks asked me to expand on them, so I’m starting a new series today.

The first one, AI, obviously doesn’t need a lot of explanation.

It’s big.

It’s fast.

It’s not going away.

It’s going to impact your life one way or the other.

It’s going to have as profound an impact as the Internet has had, both good and bad.

People will endlessly debate about where it will take us.

Some are excited, many are terrified, many are both.

And the sophistication of what we can do continues to accelerate at a ridiculous rate.

As do the risks and the downside.

Ok, so with that out of the way, here’s a bit more to think about. First, AI is not some weird futuristic concept – it’s a pervasive reality that has already been rapidly transforming our world. I took the liberty of taking one of my recent AI keynotes and had it summarized by Google Gemini. I then fed this to gamma.app – and Megatrends#1 of how it summarized my work.

The first thing thing to think about is that from the seemingly mundane to the profoundly complex, AI is already deeply embedded in our daily lives. Take a look around your world – you have::

• Wearable fitness trackers analyzing your exercise patterns
• Chatbots that instantly answer your questions
• Shopping sites recommending products based on your past purchases
• Security cameras recognizing unfamiliar faces or objects
• Music apps creating personalized playlist recommendations
• Email services categorize messages and filter spam

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. AI already powers everything around yhou, from autonomous vehicles and computer vision to natural language processing and virtual assistants. Algorithms are the unseen force behind Fitbits, Apple Health, Predictive Insurance, and just about everything else. In some industries – healthcare, for example – the ‘algorithm’ does a better job of interpreting critical data than humans do.

But that’s not the key thing to think about – it’s how quickly all of this is moving. It’s the acceleration of everything having to do with AI that we need to think about. The explosion of AI into public consciousness isn’t truly sudden. It’s the result of several exponential trends converging:

• Continuation of Moore’s Law: The number of transistors on microchips doubles every two years, leading to ever-increasing processing power.
• Collapsing Training Costs: The cost to train AI systems has plummeted dramatically. For example, the cost to train an AI system for image recognition dropped from $112.64 in 2017 to $4.50 in 2021. It’s even less today.
• The explosion of Available Data: The amount of data created worldwide is projected to grow from 47 zettabytes in 2020 to 2,142 zettabytes by 2035. This massive influx of data provides the fuel for AI training.
• Adoption rate. This acceleration means that what once took years or decades to develop is now happening in months or even days. ChatGPT, for example, reached 1 million users in just 5 days, compared to Netflix’s 3.5 years.

Then there is what is happening with development itself – it’s a massively global, collaborative research farm:

• Acceleration of Research: The number of AI and machine learning papers is growing exponentially, demonstrating a rapid increase in innovation and discovery within the field.
• Collaborative, Open Development: The AI community is actively building the future together through open development, fostering rapid progress.
• Accelerated Building Block Architecture: The development of AI models is benefiting from an accelerated building block architecture, allowing for faster and more efficient creation of complex systems.

So where does it take us? To endless debate, for one thing.

But I’m a fan of its knowledge and skills potential. Using it on my own, I’ve become convinced AI can significantly augment our capabilities -we can automate those tedious tasks and get rapid access to information. I’ll often explain on stages that AI facilitates a “knowledge acceleration journey” by offering “just-in-time knowledge” and insights, allowing for faster learning and more informed decision-making in various fields. This means that critical information can be accessed and applied precisely when needed.N

Not only that, but AI is poised to fundamentally reshape how we interact with technology and information, leading to significant shifts in workflows, educational approaches, transportation systems, healthcare delivery, and communication methods over the long term. This transformation will be gradual and will require adaptation.

As we all know, the rise of AI presents both existential threats and transformative opportunities.

• Job Displacement: While new jobs will be created, AI will also lead to the disappearance or massive change to existing careers.
• Rapid Knowledge Obsolescence: The speed of change means that skills can become outdated quickly.
• New Security Vulnerabilities: AI introduces new attack vectors, AI-generated attack software, and the risk of AI model vulnerabilities. Privacy and security concerns are paramount, as seen with AI potentially copying private messages.
• False Information and Bias: AI models have a “tendency to confidently deliver incorrect information”, highlighting issues of bias, errors, and reliability.
• Complexity and Lack of Planning: Few organizations have a plan for AI, and the complexity of AI systems outpaces the skills necessary to assess risk.

So where are we right now? I think all oif us are are on a journey from “little experience” to “experimentation and understanding” to “advanced expertise” with AI. The key is to:

• Invest in Experiential Capital: This is as important as financial capital, encouraging hands-on learning and adaptation.
• Master AI: You won’t lose your job to an AI, but you might lose your job to someone using an AI!
• Become Your Own Futurist: Keep an eye on the future and understand the accelerating trends.
• Think BIG, Start Small, Scale Fast: This mantra encapsulates the agile approach needed to navigate the AI era.

Bill Gates has said: “The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the internet, and the mobile phone.”

It promises to change everything, and if we can adapt, learn, and responsibly innovate, THAT will determine our future in this rapidly evolving landscape.

As I said, we don’t know where we are going but we sure are making great time!