JimCarroll

“Remember that as we go forward into a new decade, there are plenty of people still stuck in the old one!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

Ogden Nash captured the sentiment found in this quote perfectly: “Progress is great but it’s gone on way too long!”

That’s the mindset that will define much of the challenge for leaders as we head into the 2020’s.

The past decade saw a longing desire to return to the world of yesterday rather than a view to align to the opportunities of tomorrow.

Clearly a good part of the sentiment for Brexit came from voters in rural areas who were eager to return Britain to its “old ways” and “past glories.” In the US, political support over the last several years has been defined by those who think it is relatively easy to return the country to its global manufacturing dominance of the 50’s and 60s.

Is it working? Maybe in the short term, but certainly not into the long term. Success does not come from turning away from the future.

Why? Any study will tell you that it is those countries, companies and organizations who embrace disruptive future trends are the ones who will win; those who align themselves to the future rather than turning their back to it who will succeed; those who encourage adoption of leading concepts who find opportunity

I was reminded of this on Twitter a few days ago when a fellow futurist posted a link to an article from Ohio State University, with the headline: “As more Chinese scientists return home, the country’s scientific impact grows.”

https://news.osu.edu/more-chinese-scientists-in-america-are-going-back-home/

Restrictive immigration policies have a real impact – I predict that in the next decade, we will clearly see the US lose its dominance in global scientific research. It’s a trend that has already been well underway – I wrote about in way back in 2009, in a post “The Hollowing Out of Big Corporate R&D.”

The hollowing out of big corporate R&D

And again in 2011:

Revisiting the Hollowing Out of Global R&D Trends

Read those posts, and think about what happens as companies and countries don’t align to a future of massive globalization, acceleration and disruption.

The past is not coming back – all you have is what comes next. Every new year and every new decade sees new trends, new realties, new disruptors, new change.

What do we do with this certainty?

Align to it – don’t fight it.

“Your science fiction is already someone else’s reality!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

Tricorders for people! Tricorders for cows! Tricorders for crops!

These are all things that I’ve spoken on stage over the last decade – not as crazy science fiction like ideas from Star Trek in the 23rd Century – but as potentially real technologies that people are actively imagining, exploring, conceptualizing, designing, constructing.

You can’t go to a store and buy a tricorder today, but I bet you’ll be able to sooner than you think!

You’ll hold it to your head and get real-time insight into your health; you’ll have one to assess the health of your herd; another one will be used, just like Spock, for instant analysis of your crop. 

Consider where we are already as the 2010’s draw to a close: the last decade saw the arrival of all kinds of ‘tricorder’ prototypes. 

Medical tricorders? I’ll often use one on stage – the Scanadu Scout, which was an ultimately failed contestant in the X-Prize Foundation Tricorder Challenge. Even so, real time and real world alternatives are emerging with technologies such as the Vitaliti and Cloud DX Connected Health Kit – check it out at  https://www.clouddx.com/#/vitaliti

The same type of concept could be used for cattle ranching – which is already actively involved with what I’ve come to call ‘FitBits for Cows”, animal collar devices which can monitor bovine health, location and other data in real time.  Take a look at QuantifiedAG which has technology which does exactly that: https://quantifiedag.com

And so why not have tricorders-for-crops, just like in the picture with Spock? We can already do a crop flyover with a drone and do a detailed analysis for disease, nutrient levels, plant hydration and other insight. The next step might be something like the Phenocart, which is being explored at Kansas State University. https://www.certifiedcropadviser.org/science-news/fitbit-plants

I often use these stories on stage to emphasize a few keys point about the future:

• what we thought was far away is actually closer than we think. 
• the future is accelerating, so you need to constantly accelerate your expectations of when it will arrive 
• with the result that what we thought was science fiction is actually becoming reality – faster!