Come and visit! It’s at https://jimcarroll.ai
Daily Inspiration: “To survive the future you have to trust the algorithm but so far, the algorithm hasn’t done a lot to earn our trust!”
“To survive the future you have to trust the algorithm but so far, the algorithm hasn’t done a lot to earn our trust!” – Futurist Jim Carroll
Can you trust the algorithm?
Particularly when you know that Rosie the Robot cheated?
She did! Programmed to clean the floors, she swept the dirt under the rug when the Jetsons weren’t looking!
If you can’t trust Rosie, can you really trust anything AI related?
Through the many years that I’ve been talking about A.I., I’ve long been focused on both the potential upside and the downside. Here’s a clip from a recent post-keynote Q&A:
I thought it might be helpful to share the whole transcript.
I like to know, what do you feel about AI? And what’s beyond AI, in your opinion?
A bloody mess.
I’ve been talking about the AI for a long time, obviously, as a futurist.
A couple of observations.
Number one, it is going to be the speaking topic of 2023. I’ve got about 40 bureaus and agents around the world who book me and represent me, and the number of inquiries coming in on that topic is staggering, and we’re all seeing that because of what has happened with ChatGPT.
ChatGPT is this thing, you type in something and it comes back with some information, and I think the first time we saw that, it was like the first time we saw the World Wide Web and we went, ‘whoah, look at that, there’s something magical happening here.
I had a situation with ChatGPT, I’m a geek, I run my own servers and I needed some server code run, and I went in and asked, after asking a whole bunch of people online, how do I write this code? Nobody could give me a response, and I went into ChatGPT and asked, how do I write this code? It gave me a perfect answer.
But the problem that is unfolding here, and I put a post out about this on my website three days ago, is, as a society, it’s become painfully obvious, we don’t know how to deal with misinformation…
Look at what has happened in the US with the election, you look at what has happened with MAGA supporters and all of that.
And what AI is allowing us to do is number one, it does generate errors, it’s not perfect information, people are going to trust it, and it’s going to allow us to generate misinformation at scale in ways that are simply profound.
If you’re on Instagram, there’s somebody who’s generating… I think, I can’t remember her name, but she’s an artificially intelligent generated image of a young girl named Alice or something like that, and every day he puts out to social networks, “which picture should I use today?” and people vote which one’s gonna go on Instagram. And if you look at her, you would never know it was generated by an AI.
We are mere months away from the ability to generate full-on video content that you wouldn’t know that it’s not real.
There’s a guy who just two days ago put up a picture, a video of how he cloned himself using technology, he made an almost perfect image of him saying something, using an image generator, an AI to generate the text…an AI voice generator to do his voice.
I’m an optimist about technology, I’m an optimist about the future, I can’t come out here on stage and say, “Guess what? Your future sucks!” I wouldn’t get a lot of repeat business.
And I’m terrified by what’s going on by AI. For the first technology, it’s got me absolutely freaked out, , and I think we’re gonna do a lot of really stupid things with it as well.
There’s a lot going on right now to take our support desks, which we manage to a call center and put an AI engine on it, and that’s going come out as with staggering speed, and if we thought we were dealing with customer support hell right now, it’s gonna get unbelievably bad, because the implementations will go wrong and the technology will go bad.
So I’m actually quite a pessimist on it. I think there’s a lot of opportunities, if we look at the world of medicine, the ability for an AI to go through 100 x-rays and interpret those x-rays far more intelligently than a human can to identify conditions, it’s magical.
But on the other side, it’s scary.
I think it’s inevitable, your customer workgroups and other groups will get involved with AI and looking at it. I mean, this is the topic at 2023, and I think you have to go at it with caution.
The other side of it is, last year the whole focus was on Meta and artificial reality and cryptocurrency and blockchain, and that all sort of collapsed and went nowhere and now, the entire Silicon Valley is going “whoah, a shiny new toy, AI… the amount of venture capital, of money going in, it is simply unreal, so we’re in for an interesting ride.
AI. The future. Algorithms. Should trust them? What’s your plan?
That’s a question you’ll have to ask yourself on an increasing basis simply as you go about living your daily life, working in your profession, and working and leading day by day.
I’ll admit that I’m asking myself on a regular basis as I let the algorithm take over some of the driving activities in my Tesla – when you are barrelling down a highway at 100km/hr and a computer is doing the driving, it certainly makes you think! (I’ve also, as you might have seen, become quite skeptical that Tesla or any other car company will be able to deliver anything resembling full, wide-scale 100% reliable self-driving technology at any time in the future, which demonstrates to me that there is a lot of promise about algorithms but a lot yet to deliver.)
Here’s the thing – we already know we have significant problems. Long before ChatGPT arrived on the scene and accelerated risk with AI, we knew there were issues involving discrimination, errors, and more. Watch this video: it’s chilling.
Or this one:
And yet, we seem to be willing to trust the algorithm more than we trust our fellow humans:
Our daily lives are run by algorithms. Whether we’re shopping online, deciding what to watch, booking a flight, or just trying to get across town, artificial intelligence is involved. It’s safe to say we rely on algorithms, but do we actually trust them?
Up front: Yes. We do. A trio of researchers from the University of Georgia recently conducted a study to determine whether humans are more likely to trust an answer they believe was generated by an algorithm or crowd-sourced from humans.
The results indicated that humans were more likely to trust algorithms when problems become too complex for them to trust their own answers.
Background: We all know that, to some degree or another, we’re beholden to the algorithm. We tend to trust that Spotify and Netflix know how to entertain us. So it’s not surprising that humans would choose answers based on the sole distinction that they’ve been labeled as being computer-generated.
In three preregistered online experiments, we found that people rely more on algorithmic advice relative to social influence as tasks become more difficult. All three experiments focused on an intellective task with a correct answer and found that subjects relied more on algorithmic advice as difficulty increased. This effect persisted even after controlling for the quality of the advice, the numeracy and accuracy of the subjects, and whether subjects were exposed to only one source of advice, or both sources.
The problem here is that AI isn’t very well suited for a task such as counting the number of humans in an image. It may sound like a problem built for a computer – it’s math-based, after all – but the fact of the matter is that AI often struggles to identify objects in images especially when there aren’t clear lines of separation between objects of the same type.
Quick take: The research indicates the general public is probably a little confused about what AI can do. Algorithms are getting stronger and AI has become an important facet of our everyday lives, but it’s never a good sign when the average person seems to believe a given answer is better just because they think it was generated by an algorithm.
Today, the biggest barrier to widespread AI is not the technology, Kande said – that part is available and ready to implement. It’s the psychological baggage that’s holding it back.
“Trust in AI is a big thing, the same way you trust the manufacturing process that delivers a high-quality car,” he said. “So if it’s your favorite car, manufactured by that car company, we trust their manufacturing process and we trust the car that comes out of it.”
But a car is something we can see, touch, and feel. Even if we don’t know exactly how the engine works or how its parts are put together, we generally have a good sense of what it’s supposed to do: take us, safely, from point A to B. What Kande soon realized is that technologies like AI, despite their business-transforming potential, are a different story altogether. For one, they are invisible. This leads to many justifiable questions, even for folks who are generally well versed in the technology.
“Can you trust somebody’s AI?” asked Kande. “Can you trust the algorithm that they have? Can you trust that it won’t be biased? Can you trust that it won’t be creating collateral damage?”
Study: People trust the algorithm more than each other; People are more likely to pick an answer when they believe it was generated by an algorithm13 April 2021, The Next Web
AI is all so seductive right now – it’s the new shiny toy! And yet, it takes us into an unknown and complex world in which we have to trust the algorithm
And in the context of this, most of the major tech companies have fired most of their A.I. ethics professionals.
Last year, Amazon-owned streaming platform Twitch acknowledged it had a problem.
For much of the company’s 12-year history, women and people of color had argued the platform was biased. Sexist and racist harassment were endemic, and critics said the company’s all-important recommendation algorithms, which use artificial intelligence to decide which streamers to promote to viewers, were amplifying the problem.
As part of its response, the company set up a responsible AI team to look specifically at the algorithms. At its semiannual conference, TwitchCon, the team’s principal product manager told Twitch streamers, “We are committed to being a leader in this area of responsible and fair recommendations.” He urged them to fill out demographic surveys to track potential discrimination.
But last week, the handful of people who made up the responsible AI team were laid off, part of a broader round of cuts that hit about 400 of the company’s 2,500 employees. Others who worked on the issue as part of their current jobs have been moved to other topics, according to a former member of the responsible AI team, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal company matters.
As AI booms, tech firms are laying off their ethicists
Twitch, Microsoft and Twitter are among firms that have laid off workers who studied the negative sides of AI
March 30, 2023, Washington Post
Crazy, isn’t it?
Keynote Audience Q&A – “What’s Up with AI?” : A Reality Check
From a recent keynote – an audience member wants to know what’s up!
I thought it might be helpful to share the whole transcript.
I like to know, what do you feel about AI? And what’s beyond AI, in your opinion?
A bloody mess.
I’ve been talking about the AI for a long time, obviously,as a futuirst.
A couple of observations.
Number one, it is going to be the speaking topic of 2023. I’ve got about 40 bureaus and agents around the world who book me and represent me, and the number of inquiries coming in on that topic is staggering, and we’re all seeing that because of what has happened with ChatGPT.
ChatGPT is this thing, you type in something and it comes back with some information, and I think the first time we saw that, it was like the first time we saw the World Wide Web and we went, ‘whoah, look at that, there’s something magical happening here.
I had a situation with ChatGPT, I’m a geek, I run my own servers and I needed some server code run, and I went in and asked, after asking a whole bunch of people online, how do I write this code? Nobody could give me a response, and I went into ChatGPT and asked, how do I write this code? It gave me a perfect answer.
But the problem that is unfolding here, and I put a post out about this on my website three days ago, is, as a society, it’s become painfully obvious, we don’t know how to deal with misinformation…
Look at what has happened in the US with the election, you look at what has happened with MAGA =supporters and all of that.
And what AI is allowing us to do is number one, it does generate errrors, it’s not perfect information, people are going to trust it, and it’s going to allow us to generate misinformation at scale in ways that are simply profound.
If you’re on Instagram, there’s somebody who’s generating… I think, I can’t remember her name, but she’s an artificially intelligent generated image of a young girl named Alice or something like that, and every day he puts out to social networks, “which picture should I use today?” and people vote which one’s gonna go on Instagram. And if you look at her, you would never know it was generated by an AI.
We are mere months away from the ability to generate full-on video content that you wouldn’t know that it’s not real.
There’s a guy who just two days ago put up a picture, a video of how he cloned himself using technology, he made an almost perfect image of him saying something, using an image generator, an AI to generate the text…an AI voice generator to do his voice.
I’m an optimist about technology, I’m an optimist about the future, I can’t come out here on stage and say, “Guess what? Your future sucks!” I wouldn’t get a lot of repeat business.
And I’m terrified by what’s going on by AI. For the first technology, it’s got me absolutely freaked out, , and I think we’re gonna do a lot of really stupid things with it as well.
There’s a lot going on right now to take our support desks, which we manage to a call center and put an AI engine on it, and that’s going come out as with staggering speed, and if we thought we were dealing with customer support hell right now, it’s gonna get unbelievably bad, because the implementations will go wrong and the technology will go bad.
So I’m actually quite a pessimist on it. I think there’s a lot of opportunities, if we look at the world of medicine, the ability for an AI to go through 100 x-rays and interpret those x-rays far more intelligently than a human can to identify conditions, it’s magical.
But on the other side, it’s scary.
I think it’s inevitable, your customer workgroups and other groups will get involved with AI and looking at it. I mean, this is the topic at 2023, and I think you have to go at it with caution.
Tthe other side of it is, last year the whole focus was on Meta and artificial reality and cryptocurrency and blockchain, and that all sort of collapsed and went nowhere and now, the entire Silicon Valley is going “whoah, a shiny new toy, AI… the amount of venture capital, of money going in, it is simply unreal, so we’re in for an interesting ride.
AI. The future. What’s your plan?
Daly Inspiration: “It’s better to face what you fear rather than focusing on the fear of what you might face!”
“It’s better to face what you fear rather than focusing on the fear of what you might face!” – Futurist Jim Carroll
Meet Aurora!
She’s a 2-year-old rescue dog, born during the pandemic, and unfortunately during the early days of her life, spending too much of her time locked away inside. It was only when Chris (pictured) and his partner Bianca rescued her that she discovered the outdoors.
And in time, me.
My wife and I moved from our home of 32 years into a new home in a new city last year; my backyard opens up directly to a wonderful forest and a fairly massive park. When I’m not traveling, each morning, right after writing my Daily Inspiration post, I head out on a 7km walk – straight out my back door to watch the sun come up. Part of my route has me walking along a ‘dog park’ area; it’s a trail provided specifically for some off-leash walking. Later in the day, it’s full of people and their pets; during my early morning jaunt, there are only a few people out on the trail with their dogs.
Including Aurora, this young, quite enthusiastic Doberman.
Our first encounters did not go so well; I carried a lot of baggage into the relationship early on.
Let me say this: although I am not a dog owner, I like dogs, and enjoy the joy that it brings to their owners. I also get quite a kick out of watching the behavior of various dogs and breeds in the park during my walk. I’ve long thought that the different behaviors I see might parallel the behavior of different groups of people in the corporate space.
But Aurora? She scared me. Our early encounters were quite stressful – she didn’t seem to take kindly to me, barking at me with what I interpreted to be some aggression. I would see her and either Christ or Bianca or both of them together with Aurora off in the distance, beginning to approach, and I would tense up. Aurora would come running towards me, often barking more as she got closer. It was very stressful for me; and most likely, for Aurora.
Why?
What was going on?
Baggage.
Last May, I was attacked and bit by a different dog just steps away from our ski chalet. The attack was aggressive; the wound was deep as the flesh was pierced. Fortunately, both I and the neighbor’s dog had our ‘shots,’ and the various public health authorities and medical personnel who became involved determined that I would be ok. But it clearly impacted me. I noticed this a few days into my regular morning walk; the next few times I was out. I suddenly found myself worrying about any dog that might approach me. instead of offering a hand of recognition so that they might smell me, I kept my hand back. Instead of acknowledging any particular dog, I went quiet. My gait quicked; my stress level rose; my worry began to increase. Rather than observing different dog behaviors, I think I began to look for signs of aggression.
Particularly with Aurora.
We had a few encounters along the way; she would run at me, barking. I would tense up, worried, and stressed.
And one day, I decided to take matters on and resolve the situation.
What did I do? I yelled at Chris and Bianca.
When Aurora barked at me that day, I yelled – quite loudly. Consider this – they were out together for what they had probably planned to be a lovely morning walk, mostly in a leash-free zone, and now found themselves on the receiving end of a rather rude series of comments. I suggested their dog was not well-behaved, and that they needed to do better. Chris made a pointed comment that perhaps I was reacting too harshly; I think he mentioned some sort of PTSD. I marched onwards.
The next few walks, in my usual tensed-up form, I kept a wary eye out for Aurora – and did not see her or her owners for quite some time. I began to think the situation through in my mind, and started to think I was in the wrong; I had overreacted. I also knew that someone we would need to reach some sort of detente – I was going to be out there, and Aurora was going to be out there, so we might as well learn how to co-exist. I began to run my comments and reaction through my mind though and decided once again that if I would see them, I would again take some direct action.
I would apologize for my behavior.
And I did. One day the usual happened; I saw them in the distance. I tensed up, Aurora barked, and Chris and Bianca continued their way warily towards me, perhaps warily, probably expecting another tirade.
“Look, I’m really not a jerk,” I remember saying. “I’m actually a nice guy. It’s just…..” And I proceeded to explain what had happened to me months before.
I must admit now that I could not have met a nicer couple. Chris called Aurora over and held her close to me; she sniffed; I smiled warily. We continued talking, and they were sympathetic to my situation. They explained more about Aurora and I became sympathetic to her situation. A rather young Doberman – still very much a pup at 2 – she had not had the chance during the early part of Covid to become accustomed to having many people around. I too was learning – perhaps I really might have developed some sort of dog-related PTSD as a result of my previous attack.
So we talked. And every time we met, we talked a bit more. And over time, Aurora’s behavior towards me changed – basically, ignoring me – most certainly, because I changed. In deciding to confront my fear, perhaps I had managed to significantly reduce my fear and move on. And no doubt Aurora sensed this.
Yesterday was indicative of the new relationship that Aurora and I now have. 2/3 of my walk through my walk, I could see her and Chris off in the distance. She ran towards me; I shouted her name in recognition; she ran at a gallop towards me and … ran right past me. No barking, no acknowledgment of me, totally involved in her moment of dog-joy running free on a trail.
What a wonderful moment!
I think we’ve moved on! Our relationship is now rather successful!
What does all of this have to do with the future, change, innovation, and disruption – the stuff I focus on with my stage work? Not a lot, but EVERYTHING.
So much of moving forward with the future involves dealing with new and unusual situations; people are not comfortable in the new zones in which they find themselves. Among the many reactions that emerge that cause people to battle back against the future, fear is one of the most common. I will often note on stage that while some people accept the future and look at is an opportunity, others view it with fear and as a result, see it as a threat. Fear of failure can hold us back from trying new ideas; fear can cause us to oppose those ideas; fear can put us into a mindset where we automatically recoil from any approaching trend because we have developed some sort of future-related PTSD.
I’ve learned a lot through this experience, though I am not quite sure yet fully what. I also know that I have met and made delightful new friends. The more I learn about Chris and Bianca, the more I realize I have discovered a lovely young couple. As someone who has never owned a dog, I have come to learn that a pet is very much a part of the family of the owner, and I can appreciate the shock that must ensue when that relationship is challenged!
I’ll head out on my walk shortly after finishing this post; perhaps I will meet Aurora again today. If not, the next. She will mostly ignore me as she revels in her doggy-joy; I will take pride in mostly managing and overcoming my fear after a rather traumatic circumstance with my dog bite; and the sun will rise in splendor.
And life will go on, fear not totally vanquished, but powerful lessons learned.
Keynote Topic: The Future of Financial Services – The Next Generation Financial Consumer and Financial Advisor
Back in 2008, just before the global economic meltdown, Credit Suisse (just purchased by UBS) interviewed me for its’ global client publication Bulletin. Distributed to 150,000 key clients worldwide, the publication covered multiple different topic issues; in my case, they probed my mind for my thoughts on insight, innovation, creativity, transformation, and disruption – and the role of a futurist in guiding organizations forward.
I was reminded of this interview when I was on stage last week for a financial services organization, in that a good part of my talk revolved around the next-generation financial consumer and the financial planner/wealth manager/investment advisor. In the Credit Suisse article, this particular comment resonated:
How do you personally innovate so that you always have a new message?
A lot of it comes with just observing what’s going on in one industry compared with others. Many trends are similar. And, I have the luxury of time and can just relax and think a lot. That is my job. A huge factor is that I have two sons, ages 12 and 14, and I work at home and often just watch them. You can really figure out the future by watching what children and young adults do, and then ask- ing yourself, why they do it. That really helps to understand where the future is heading.
My sons are now soon to be 28 and 30, and I still watch them as a unique method of understanding and working with the future, combined with the massive research dump that I take while preparing for any keynote.
And at a financial industry last week in California, the story of my youngest son actually became a part of my keynote, where I used him to paint a picture of just how different this generation is – in their relationship with money investments, the advisory role, and their expectations within the financial services. My son Tom? He’s a wealth management advisor, insurance broker, and financial manager. While being awfully proud of him, I also marvel at his unique relationship with the industry and his expectations.
Financial service organizations need to understand it’s no longer business as usual – this next generation is just so different it is staggering. In the context of that, the issue of high-tech-high-touch becomes more important than ever before. Consider this clip:
I expanded on this a little bit more during the Q& section that followed.
This got me thinking – there is so much happening here at a speed that many organizations don’t truly understand what is happening. With that in mind, I’ve reworked my basic financial keynote description to something a little more specific.
Keynote: The Future of Financial Services and the Next Generation Financial Consumer and Financial Advisor
There is no such thing as cash. The concept of float has disappeared. Everything is instant and accelerated expectations are the norm. DIsurptive ideas are everywhere – and everything financial is mobile. Those trends and much more are the focus o this fast-moving keynote by Futurist Jim Carroll. jim’s financial services clients include T. Rowe Price, Manulife, New York Life, TD Bank, Fidelity Cayman, American Fidelity, Lincoln Financial Group, and many more.
The trends impacting the banking, financial, investment, and wealth management industry are staggering in scope. The arrival of fast, new, nimble competitors is driven by the speed of innovation and the scope of the opportunity with FinTech leading to massive business model disruption. A collapse of attention spans driven by the next generation of financial consumers and an overwhelming preponderance of short attention spans. The acceleration of the industry to the speed of Silicon Valley as technology takes over every single aspect of the industry. The return of the potential for disintermediation with a vengeance, with sudden new challenges to existing distribution and broker channels. The arrival of a new generation that does not understand the concept of ‘float’, and who expects to be able to apply for an automotive loan and receive approval in under 45 seconds – through their mobile device – and then get instant insurance coverage at the same speed of instantaneity. Not to forget the sudden and instant arrival of A.I. with tools like ChatGPT – what happens when generic financial questions can be easily and somewhat reliably answered by a bot?
Leading financial organizations need crisp insight into the trends which are redefining the sector, and the innovation pathways that will provide opportunities for growth and transformation. Worldwide, they’ve been turning to Futurist Jim Carroll for that insight – his client list boasts many of the most prestigious organizations in the world. Whether it’s an internal senior leadership meeting, financial services industry conference, broker or distribution network sales meeting, or private wealth management strategy session, Jim Carroll is known worldwide for his ability to outline the fast trends impacting the financial industry now and into the future. He recently spoke for the family offices of the world’s wealthiest families at a private, invitation-only event in Athens, Greece, with several trillions of dollars of wealth represented in the room.
Jim Carroll has been helping financial organizations in the world understand the tsunami of change that is underway. In his keynote he will put into perspective the real trends impacting the future of financial services, offering critical insight into the key innovation and leadership strategies in a time of disruptive change.
Daily Inspiration: “At some moment in time, you will transition from the shame of your mistakes into pride for the lessons you’ve learned from them!”
“At some moment in time, you will transition from the shame of your mistakes into pride for the lessons you’ve learned from them!” – Futurist Jim Carroll
There’s a second version that goes like this!
“At some moment in time, you will transition from the shame you have for the mistakes you have made, into pride for your ability to share the lessons that you have learned from them!”
As they say, mistakes are good for you! But as with any cliche, it’s what you do with them that matters!
No one individual is perfect; no perfectionist is absolute. We’ve all been there – a moment in time in our business or personal life for which we would like to have a do-over. But the nature of time means that we can’t; no matter how much we might like to, we can’t erase our yesterdays – we can only paint our tomorrow’s.
That’s why I often find myself going to the first variation of this phrase when talking with people who are struggling to figure out how to capitalize on the cracks in their innovation culture – they need some context! Or, I’ll use the second variation of the phrase with people who are new to the unique struggles in their personal lives – they need some hope!
So how do you capitalize and move on from your mistakes? How do you turn shame into pride? How can you best transform the regret for where you have been into your optimism going forward? A number of things might work!
Face reality – face your shame! Accept it. It’s done. There is no do-over – there is only the next things you can do.
Turn it around. Rather than viewing it as a burden to carry, turn into an asset for going forward. What can you learn from where you’ve been, and how might that guide you into tomorrow?
Banish regret. When shame consumes you, recognize it for what it is, and work hard to turn it into that into positive pathway. Focus on your smile, not your frown.
Feed yourself with optimism. Nurture your soul with the potential for tomorrow rather than consuming yourself with the challenges of yesterday.
Turn forward. Stop thinking about where you’ve been – think about where you are going!
Find the small wins. Don’t expect ‘big’ success all at once – recognize that moving forward is often the accumulation of many small bits of small success.
Reward yourself. Remind yourself of your progress with small rewards. Buy a cookie, hug a friend, chase the sunrise.
Remind yourself. Mark your progress. Every single moment going forward, not back, is a win. Every single day is a victory. Remember that!
Scale back the pain. Don’t be too hard on yourself. Everyone makes mistakes. You aren’t unique – you aren’t special. Accept your humility.
Find strength in numbers. Understand you are not unique. Guess what – everyone fails! Everyone has shame!
Seek hope. Don’t get stuck in the past – glue yourself to tomorrow!
Find support. Guess what – everyone has been there – and their own lessons can help you.
Watch others. Failure – it’s all around you – you might have been so focused on your own that you never noticed it before. Learn from what you see elsewhere.
Talk to others. You aren’t alone – find comfort in numbers.
Share your story! Because when you can, you have already achieved the greatest of success – confidence in your tomorrow, and inspiration to help others!
Mistakes? When you think about it, they become assets – not liabilities. Understand that, and you’ve got everything you need!
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