Enterprise Bank, based in the Western US, has been running its virtual Enterprise University for 20 years! To kick off its 2023 series, it brought in Jim for a keynote that looked at the impact and opportunity of AI in a vast number of different industries, from retail to manufacturing, insurance, and finance, to healthcare and architecture.
“Explaining AI today is just like explaining the internet in 1993” – Futurist Jim Carroll
My 90s, as some of you know, were WILD. Writing and co-writing 34 books, hosting multiple national radio shows, writing columns regularly for newspapers and magazines, doing HUNDREDS of media interviews, including TV, print, and radio … and raising a young family with my wife at the same time. Wild.
With stuff like this – an interview in March 1994, one of literally hundreds I did over the years to come. I was out on book tours across Canada and often had 5 TV interviews back to back. Exhausting!
One of the books I co-wrote in 1995 – which followed a Profit magazine cover story profile shortly before which examined the strategic business opportunities of the Internet – went by the awful name of the Canadian Internet Advantage. It was a business strategy book, plain and simple – how could you use the Internet for strategic impact? It opened with this observation:
“….new software and imaginative services are making the Internet one of the most exciting places ever for doing business.”
The Internet – How it will change the way you do business
BusinessWeek, November 14, 1994Even before you bought this book, you have probably heard much about the wonders of the Internet, and how it will change the world around us.
While you hear a lot of talk about the Internet, you may still not be quite sure what it is or what it represents. You might be confused by the technology that surrounds it, or overwhelmed by the hype that seems to envelope it.
You might be intimidated by the computer technology that makes up the Internet. You want to understand it without listening to computer geeks speak of the wonders of high-speed broadband internetworking or the joys of multitasking. You might want to understand the Internet without getting lost in talk about bits and bytes and RAM and ROM and FTP and Telnet.
You might even be using the Internet already, on a day-to-day basis, but you want a better understanding of what it is really all about. Having ventured into the Internet, you can tell that something important is going on, but you are not quite sure what. You need a clearer picture of where all this stuff is headed.
You have an interest in the network known as the Internet — but to your frustration, no one has been able to explain the strategic potential of the Internet to you.
And so, you want to understand the business opportunities that can be found through use of the Internet. You want to know how it can be used in an educational or government setting. You want to understand its role in not-for-profit organizations. You want to know its impact on scientific research and health care services.
You need to understand the Internet as a strategy, not just as a technology.
Regardless of who you are and no matter what your objectives, it is clear that you need a good, hard and honest look at the opportunities that can be found in the network known as the Internet.
That’s what this book is all about.
* * * * * * *
The mere existence of such a trend is pause for some thought. How will business be affected? Education? Government? Science? Our own personal lives?
No one knows for sure what will happen, but one thing is for sure — the impact on our world, of a trend in which all computers globally become linked together, will be dramatic.
Substitute ‘AI’ for ‘Internet’ – and swap out ‘FTP and Telnet’ for ‘ChatGPT and LLM’s’ – and it says the same thing.
The book then went on to outline the fact that it would provide ‘strategic clarity’ around the Internet. Today, I’m using the same phrase – ‘strategic clarity’ – as I get booked by an increasing number of executives what is really going on out there.
In the Internet strategy book, we noted the necessity to cut through the hype.
For all the promise that the Internet shows, we need to keep in mind that we are still in the very early stages of a significant development.
This is particularly true when it comes to the use of the Internet for strategic purposes. There has been a lot of talk of late about the significant ‘competitive advantage’ that organizations can obtain by utilizing the Internet.
Like any new technology, we need to be realistic in our expectations of what the Internet can deliver. We need an understanding of its promise without the hype.
In this book, we will provide you with an overview of the Internet without that hype. We will help you understand the role of the Internet in business, education, government and the not-for-profit sector, without getting you lost in the technology. We will put into perspective some of the key activities that your organization can begin to explore in order to understand where the Internet might bring you some benefit.
We’ll talk about the Internet in simple, human terms, and not in technical terms.
I’m thinking about these issues today – and a lot recently, actually – as I head down to Houston to meet with the CEOs of 60 major software companies to talk about the strategic business role of AI. I find myself in the same mindset – there is something massive playing out here, but there is going to be some time for it to all unfold. Meanwhile, some companies are rushing into it blind, chasing a technology without a strategy; the hype machine is in full force; and a lot of foolish mistakes are being made.
Meanwhile, those who think strategically and recognize this is a fast-moving long-term game are the ones who will win.
Back in 1993? We led the same idea with the buzzkill.
The Internet is for the Long Term
As a first step, we’ll be quite frank with you on the benefits of the Internet.
If you get involved with the Internet, you need to recognize that it is a system that can take some time to deliver results.
The Internet won’t dramatically affect your business overnight — the Internet is not a place to ‘get rich quick.’ You won’t instantly become a ‘knowledge expert’, able to access the whole of human knowledge merely by pressing a key — it will take some time to learn how to navigate its massive information sources. Using the Internet for a week or a month won’t dramatically change your skill set such that you are more likely to find a job or opportunity — the Internet will change your skills in more subtle ways.
The Internet promises a lot, but in approaching it, you need to be real in your expectations.
Substitute AI for Internet in that paragraph, and here we find ourselves today. I will be sharing the same type of message in Houston, with this closing slide:
AI – how do you take advantage of it in a way that creates a sustainable competitive advantage? The bottom line is this – AI is going to change:
But it’s not going to do this overnight, and you need to be strategic in your thinking.
It’s 1993 all over again.
It’s fascinating.
I love it when an upcoming client does a great job at capturing a message for an upcoming keynote. In this case, they did a remix of some of my promo clips with information about their upcoming event. They did a wonderful job!
The future of AI in construction in San Diego, end of October, for the Building Industry Association of Southern California.
“Quit quitting” – Futurist Jim Carroll
Many organizations embrace failure because they always give up on trying to do the hard stuff. Many leadership teams never get their project to the finish line because they give in to the negative elements around them that are always pushing them to stop. Many individuals never get to where they could be because they simply stop trying.
Too many quit too early.
Quitting is easy; staying the course and seeing things through is hard.
That’s not to say there is a benefit to be found in ‘good quitting.’ I’ve quit quite a few negative things in my life along the way, and know that quitting an effort to permanently quit something is not a great thing. Three months into our relationship in 1987, my new girlfriend suggested to me that I had a choice to make – it was either the cigarettes or her. I chose wisely – today, she is my wife. She’s since seen me make a few other great decisions along the way that have involved ‘good quitting.’ (Perhaps I never quite understood the concept of smoking in the first place, LOL.)
I digress.
Why do people and organizations quit important things? So much of it is due to mindset – fear of failure, lack of motivation, feeling overwhelmed, or overwhelming mental exhaustion can play a role. There are other issues, such as a lack of skilled resources. Fuzzy goals, endless distractions, or a poorly constructed team with bad vibes can also engineer an early termination of a critical project. In other cases, unrealistic expectations, a budget constraint due to poor planning, or simply never understanding the scope of the project in the first place can lead to an abandonment of an effort. Often an organization will quit because a competitor has a head start, a leap on the opportunity, and was first to get out of the starting gate simply because they saw the opportunity before anyone else did.
But in other cases, it’s a simple denial of the reality of the future that causes an organization to quit.
Sometimes organizations fall prey to the phrase that it is ‘better to quit while you are ahead,’ and often, that is exactly the wrong thing to do. Quitting early can set you back when the inevitability of the trend eventually rears its head. Which brings us to the story and the film, “Who Killed the Electric Car?” In the face of the inevitability of the electrification of vehicles, many major automotive companies are far behind, and for some of them, that is the result of a past decision to quit on an obvious future trend. Active denial in the face of an obvious future is a form of leadership negligence – quitting early is a clear leadership failure.
The video “Who Killed the Electric Car?” tells the story of how General Motors launched the EV-1 in 1997, an electric automobile that required no gas, oil, muffler, or brake changes – it was the world’s first true electric car. Yet six years later, GM quit and recalled and destroyed the entire EV-1 fleet. Why? It was clinging to its current business model, working at speed to deny the future. It’s a heck of a story about ‘quitting.’
General Motors (GM) is aiming to create a bit of noise (not literally) in the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) arena with its new “electric supertruck”, the GMC Hummer EV.
But it’ll be nothing compared with its first headline-grabbing BEV, the GM EV1.
The 1996 EV1 now sounds a bit old-tech by modern standards: the first examples had lead-acid batteries and less than 100km range. But the EV1 was the first viable real-world BEV from a volume carmaker. It even predated Toyota’s petrol-electric Prius.
However, the EV1’s fame came not from its groundbreaking BEV status but from GM’s decision to cancel the programme and take back the cars from hugely enthusiastic, high-profile customers.
From the start, the EV1 was only available under lease, with lessors carefully vetted by GM. The agreement specifically excluded the possibility of purchasing the car at the end of the term.
Just 1117 first and second-generation cars were made from 1996-99. In the face of slackening legal requirements for zero-emissions vehicles in California and the high cost/limited sales of the EV1, GM officially discontinued the programme in 2002 and recalled the vehicles, with the intention of crushing them.
And that’s where the EV1 legend really began, because many owners didn’t want to give them up. GM argued the project was a fiscal failure and the cost of maintaining service and repair infrastructure for 15 years (required by law in California) was prohibitive. At least 50 lessees offered to buy their cars and agree to no liability to GM for service or repair; but the company declined.
Many lessees and EVangelists argued GM and the wider car and oil industries wanted to suppress BEV technology, as it posed a threat to profitable petrol-powered cars and the infrastructure built around them.
The controversy was captured in the 2006 documentary Who Killed the Electric Car?
Electric Car That Made Everyone Made,
20 November 2020, Hawke’s Bay Today
Watch the “six-minute version” of the documentary, edited for quick consumption, to learn more. You can find the full documentary on most streaming services.
It’s a sad story, and the result today is all too predictable – GM squandered an early lead, and today, is well behind in one of the most significant trends of our time. By quitting while it was ahead, GM fell far behind.
Quit quitting!
As a leadership team or as an individual chasing success, how do you avoid abandonment?
Commit to starting and staying; understand that mistakes are lessons; embrace the challenges along the way; celebrate the milestones of success; keep commitment in your back pocket; and battle the negativity that comes with setbacks. Remember – persistence pays off.
“Make your imagination matter more.” – Futurist Jim Carroll
Much of the focus on AI these days has to do with the potential disruptive business opportunities and challenges.
Yet in addition to that, there is something perhaps even more profound underway, and that is exponentiation in the baseline tools that are available to all of us to enhance and accelerate our creativity. Let me explain.
Just over a year ago, when I first began to use some of the AI-to-image generation tools, I asked it to draw a picture of a deer staring into a webcam. What I got back was, at the time, mind-blowing – and yet, rather primitive.
One year later, things have changed – and improved – dramatically.
That image is generated by the exact same prompt, and represents a pretty staggering update in the sophistication of the systems available to us today – and this is what has evolved in just one year!
This brings me to Baby Viking Summer Camp from Hédi Orvos-Clark.
I first saw this post some months ago. What caught my attention – and that of tens of thousands of others – was the explanatory detail she created around the concept of the camp through the written word that went with the AI-generated images. Parents everywhere were enthralled with the idea – with some of them perhaps thinking it was real, not just someone conjuring a fantastic concept using an AI text-to-image generator! Read the absolutely wonderful description of what the camp was all about. The storyline is magical!
What is happening today with AI is the marriage of stunningly fascinating new creative tools involving images, video, and more – combined with the imagination and creativity of those who are able to maximize their potential. We are only beginning to see and understand its potential with the explosion of wonderfully creative new ideas like Baby Viking Summer Camp.
All of this creativity is being enhanced, obviously, by the connectivity and mind-sharing that is social media. Over on Facebook, there is the MidJourney Prompt Share group. Anyone can join, anyone can participate – and share not only their images, but the ‘prompt’ they used to create them. The group offers up a cornucopia of staggeringly beautiful, mind-numbingly wonderful creative experiences. This is just one of what are probably thousands, it not tens of thousands, of creative communities sharing ideas.
Back to my deer-in-the-webcam – it’s important to realize just how far these online image generators have come in just over a year. On the Facebook group, I saw this image of an owl in a knitted outfit. The prompt used in MidJourney to create this imaginary scene is shared as a part of the process.
Anyone can generate anything – give it a try!. I went over to another image tool, DreamStudio.Ai, and typed in a simple prompt: “Baby Viking.” The results were magical, and kind of cute!
The important thing to realize is that every single AI model out there acts and generates information in a different way, based upon the underlying model. With that, another AI tool generated this image for the same prompt: a rather serious Baby Viking.
Here’s something you need to know – we are already at the edge of the ear in which we are moving beyond mere text-to-image generation like this, into a world of text-to-video generation., You will see this first emerge with AI-generated short clips, followed by a video that will be a minute or a few minutes in length. In your lifetime, you are bound to see the first completely AI-generated full-length feature movie, generated entirely by someone working at their desk, typing in prompts, and carefully massaging the content.
And obviously, there’s a positive and a negative side to this. The Hollywood creative community is obviously worried and is expressing that worry through their strike action. At the same time, millions worldwide are busy exploring these new tools accelerating their creativity capability.
This begs the question – are you doing the same? Do you recognize that perhaps you need to dive right in and explore what is going on? It’s not difficult – visit MidJourney, Stable Diffusion, DreamStudio.Ai, Ideogram.Ai or one of many other tools that are out there. You can try a lot of this for free, and perhaps discover within your mind a new form of creativity that you never knew you had – a form of creativity enabled by machine intelligence.
Generate an image of a Baby Viking, and send it to me! I’d love to see what you come up with!
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