Daily Inspiration: “Innovation is all about taking risks but it’s also about taking on the risk of not taking on risks!”

“Innovation is all about taking risks but it’s also about taking on the risk of not taking on risks!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

You have to pick your moments. Get the timing right! Take risks, but carefully judge when you are going to take on those risks.

That’s what I’ve always said about innovation, particularly when it comes to the future and trends.
It’s all about timing! I’ve got an entire keynote about that topic: “Timing The Future: How to Maximize Your Opportunities by Understanding How the Future Actually Happens,” in which I note that “getting the timing right will be the key to their success!” Getting the timing right is critical to succes – but getting the timing of the risk related to that timing is also critical. That’s a critical concept to understand, so I’ll give it a try by explaining my last few days of skiing or lack thereof.

I try to get my timing right when I take on risk, particularly when it comes to skiing. I have a relatively low-risk tolerance. It’s been put to the test this year. You’ve seen the pictures from European ski resorts – it’s a dismal year! Meanwhile, out at Mammoth Mountain in California, they’ve got too much snow! Here in eastern North America, we’ve mastered our skill at skiing on ice, such are the conditions.

My ski season has been one of getting the timing right in a way that lines up with my risk tolerance. So when I had a day like I had Friday with blue sunny skies and groomed conditions, it was fantastic! I got the timing right, and the timing lined up with my risk tolerance.

The day before, though, I didn’t venture out – we had a storm the night come through the day and night before with a north wind, and I suspected conditions would be moments of snow drifts with intermittent hidden ice patches, which is pretty horrid to ski in! I wasn’t comfortable with the idea – and I was right! Most people gave up after a few runs. That taught me an important lesson –  I took the risk of not taking on the risk, and was proven to be right!

The same type of thing happened yesterday.  We had a pretty significant dump of about 20cm of snow, and I’m not good at all at skiing in deep powder. I bailed out – and apparently, for someone of my skill level, that was a good decision, since it became a mogul farm pretty quickly. I took the risk of not taking on the risk and was proven to be right for my own risk tolerance.

I’m not certain this might make any sense, and you are probably wondering what this has to do with corporate innovation. Not a lot, but a lot of everything. Apple, one of the most successful innovators in corporate history, always managed to get the timing right in a way that lined up with its risk tolerance. It came in late to the digital music industry with the iPod nano, but only after some other companies had blazed a trail and took on the early risk. It carefully studied the mobile phone industry before determining the timing was right to jump in with the iPhone and take over the market. In both cases, it followed a path that it would not take on early risk – that didn’t line up with its risk culture.

In other words, it carefully studied the market, technology evolution, and opportunity, and only jumped forward when it believed the timing was right. But by not jumping in early, it took on the risk of not taking on the risk – and clearly decided that the risk to be a leader was too high Let me say that again – the result was that it took on the risk of not taking on that early risk, and was proven to be right! 

Get the timing right in a way that lines up with your risk tolerance, and you’ve found another track to potential success.