# From the Stage: Timing Is Everything
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From the stage Speaking to the American Truck Dealers, I shared what I call my fourth rule of the future. We usually know what is coming. The hard part is when. "The challenge is this, when does it happen?" To answer it, I pointed to the Gartner Hype Cycle. A technology appears, hits a peak of inflated expectations, falls into the trough of disillusionment and, eventually, reaches the plateau of productivity. Then I added Bill Gates's famous observation: "We tend to overestimate the rate of change that will occur in a two-year basis." The kicker is that we underestimate the ten-year change. Why it matters Leaders get timing wrong in both directions. They overinvest at the peak of the hype, get burned, and then ignore the trend just as it starts to matter. The best leaders watch where a trend sits on the curve and ingest it when it matures, not when it's loudest. "The future happens slowly. And then it happens all at once." The takeaway For each "hot" trend in your industry, ask: peak of hype, trough, or real? Don't confuse a quiet trend with a dead one. Plan for ten-year change, not just two-year noise. Related: Case Study: American Truck Dealers: The Truck Became A Data Platform On Wheels. · Earlier: Daily Inspiration: "Only a fool allows skepticism to get in the way of opportunity!" (2023) · Earlier: The Future - It's all a Matter of Timing (2021) · Automotive & Transportation From the Stage is a weekday series of short clips from more than 30 years of keynotes, and the leadership lessons that still matter.

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Source: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/10/from-the-stage-timing-is-everything/