# Thursday Thoughts: Confident Stupidity, Tariffs, and the Era of FAFO
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A blunt phrase perfectly captures our current era of geopolitical and economic upheaval: "fuck around and find out." Over the last few years, a significant portion of the North American industrial and agricultural base fucked around with isolationist politics, anti-science rhetoric, and protectionist nostalgia. Today, as 50 percent retaliatory tariffs land on top of fractured supply chains and skyrocketing inflation, they are finding out. Reality is entirely unforgiving. It does not care about political slogans, and it certainly does not care about nostalgia for the 1970s. The Disconnect For two decades, I have stood on stages in front of the world's largest organizations and laid out a clear, technology-driven vision of the future. The disconnect between that vision and the decisions those same industries ultimately supported is staggering. We are watching leaders actively bankrupt the very future they need to build, choosing political grievance over scientific and economic reality. I wrote about this before in the context of my post, Confident Stupidity. It's helpful to think about what's happening in that context. The Agricultural Disconnect: From Precision Farming to Protectionist Pain I have spent years keynoting events throughout the US for major players - groups like the United Soybean Board, CattleCon, Western Growers, Nutrien, Simplot, and CHS Inc. The vision I shared with them was bold. We mapped out a transition to real-time spatial intelligence farming driven by 24-hour autonomous tractors, weed-zapping laserbots, drone seeding, and wearable sensors for livestock. I emphasized that their survival required aligning with exponential science and capitalizing on massive, interconnected global markets. Instead, many in this sector aggressively backed trade wars and tariffs. Case in point? I warned the top 500 soybean farmers in the US - I had billions of dollars of soybean int he room in St. Louis in 2015 - about the massive opportunity in global trade, yet many supported decisions that actively gutted their own potential Today, the results are catastrophic - barely any soybeans sold to their biggest market, an industry in upheaval, and farmers who are in the FAFO phase. And now, with the US-Canada-Mexico trade war back in full swing in August 2026, retaliatory tariffs are hitting agricultural exports hard. Global supply chain disruptions have squeezed farmers with massive spikes in the costs of fertilizer, seed, and chemical inputs. With that, have you seen the sudden rush of US cattle farmers and ranchers complaining about a plant to bring in cheap beef as imports? FAFO. And to a degree, the future has been lost. The efficiency gains of precision farming are being completely undermined by the crushing cost of isolationism. The Manufacturing Mirage: Industry 4.0 Meets 19th-Century Tariffs The story in manufacturing is just as frustrating. I took the stage for East Penn Manufacturing, Columbus McKinnon, the Association of Manufacturing Technology, the IMX Interactive Manufacturing Exchange, the BigM Manufacturing Summit, and the American Manufacturing Summit. I worked with automotive giants like Magna, Volvo, and Caterpillar. Not to mention countless manufacturing and economic development associations. My message was consistent. The future was about mass customization, digital twins, the Industrial Internet of Things, and highly agile, globally interconnected supply chains. I urged them to stop defending brute-force labor and instead upskill for robotics and 3D printing. Yet, significant factions within these groups championed border barriers and tariffs, clinging to the fantasy of bringing back dead-end jobs. Those jobs are not coming back. You are either a part of the new world of manufacturing, or you're not. The irony is staggering. The sweeping 25 to 50 percent tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and intermediate components have heavily disrupted the exact supply chains required to build the advanced cobots and digital infrastructure I advocated for. We are now witnessing the imminent disappearance into irrelevance of the North American automotive industry, crushed by the weight of its own protectionist policies. Healthcare and the Anti-Science Agenda Even in the world of healthcare, the story repeats. I addressed the leadership at Pfizer, Genentech, and Icon PLC about a future driven by genomics and AI-accelerated drug discovery. I've keynoted most of the major US medicine and healthcare associations. Tens of thousands of researchers, doctors, medical professionals. Today, those same companies are forced to operate in a climate where foundational science funding is slashed and top-tier global talent is blocked by extreme visa barriers. What Comes Next with the Decline of an Empire? None of this should be a surprise. Back in 2017, I wrote a post titled "What Comes Next with the Decline of an Empire." It's here. I warned that protectionist policies and an anti-science mindset would slowly erode the economic and technological dominance of the United States. I predicted the relocation of R&D, the loss of green energy investment, the shift in global travel, and a massive human capital brain drain. Every single one of those predictions was a bullseye. Every single one is happening. We are witnessing the absolute decline of the US in real time. We are living through a period of confident stupidity, where irrational decisions are generating very real, measurable destruction. The Global Shift: The Rest of the World Steps In So what does this mean for other countries worldwide? It means massive, unprecedented opportunity. The rest of the world is not waiting for America to sort out its political temper tantrums. While the US tries to survive a 21st-century technological acceleration using 19th-century trade tools, its global competitors are stepping right into the void. China has solidified an absolute stranglehold on global battery and solar supply chains. Shenzhen is the undisputed hardware and robotics powerhouse. Europe is aggressively recruiting stranded American scientific talent and dominating digital manufacturing. Canada, as evidenced by its new Trade Diversification Strategy and recent retaliatory tariffs, is actively charting a path forward that bypasses its southern neighbur, expanding trade corridors with Asia and Europe. The global economy is physically restructuring itself around new, reliable hubs that actually welcome innovation and international collaboration. Economic power is shifting permanently to nations that embrace the future rather than fight it. You cannot slow down the acceleration of risk, and you cannot wish away the volatility of the current market. You can't wish for 1950 to come back and make it happen. But you do not have to participate in the confident stupidity that is dragging so many industries backward. The organizations that survive this era will be the ones that rely on rigorous insight, relentless innovation, and a clear-eyed view of reality. If your leadership team is struggling to make sense of a world that no longer seems to follow rational economic models, it is time to change the conversation. Stop waiting for certainty that will never arrive. Bring me in for a keynote or an executive advisory session to cut through the political noise, map out the actual trends reshaping your specific industry, and build a strategy that aligns with where the world is actually going. The future still belongs to those who are fast, so let's get moving. Call me to get me in front of your leadership team, for a real message on what comes next, and what to do about it.

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Source: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/08/thursday-thoughts-confident-stupidity-tariffs-and-the-era-of-fafo/