---
title: "Monday Mining: The 80% Jobs Prediction, Ten Years Later"
canonical: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/08/mondayminingthe-80-jobs-prediction-ten-years-later/
updated: 2026-08-07T10:01:06+00:00
---

# Monday Mining: The 80% Jobs Prediction, Ten Years Later

*“Some estimates suggest that 80% of today’s jobs might not exist in the same form in just 10 years. What are YOU doing to reinvent yourself for that potential reality?”* – Futurist Jim Carroll, from the vault: *November 11, 2016.*

*This is a new series I am running each Monday going forward – where I examine some prediction I made in the past, and see how things turned out.*

I speak and write a lot about the future of jobs and careers, and this observation from 2016 seems to bear a lot of relevance in the context of what is happening with AI today in 2026. So how does the observation play out 10 years later?

The honest scorecard: jobs didn’t vanish at anywhere near 80% like I suggested. What happened instead is closer to what the qualifier in my own quote said — *‘not in the same form*.’ In 2026, more than 42% of business tasks are now performed by machines, and automation has displaced roughly 5 million jobs since 2025 by some counts. But the consensus among labour economists is now explicit: *automation transforms roles far more than it eliminates them, shifting task composition toward judgment, creativity, and interpersonal skills.*

The scarier-sounding number got the headline in 2016. The more accurate word — ‘transform’ — was sitting right there in my own sentence the whole time.

And this is particularly relevant now in the era of AI – after all, you won’t be replaced by AI. But you will be replaced by someone who is better at using AI! This from a slide I often use on stage!

![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Ai-Jobs.jpg)

**Then vs. now: Right instinct, wrong verb.**

‘Not in the same form’ turned out to be the more accurate prediction than ‘80% won’t exist.’

That’s why it might be helpful to put this Daily inspiration post from years ago into your mind:

![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/RelentlesslyReinvent.jpeg)

*If you examine your situation carefully, there is always an opportunity for you to be a new you!

*

That’s exactly what you should be thinking about now!