---
title: "Megatrends One Year Later – #8: The Circular Economy – What I Predicted, and What’s Actually Happening"
canonical: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/08/megatrends-one-year-later-8-the-circular-economy/
updated: 2026-08-11T21:31:25+00:00
---

# Megatrends One Year Later – #8: The Circular Economy – What I Predicted, and What’s Actually Happening

*“Opportunities come not just from turning trash into treasure, but from engineering systems and products to make that a regular reality.”* – Futurist Jim Carroll

![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Megatrend8-CircularEconomy.jpg)

One year ago, in July 2025, I published [Megatrend #8: The Circular Economy](https://jimcarroll.com/2025/07/decoding-tomorrow-30-megatrends-8-the-circular-economy-opportunities-come-not-just-from-turning-trash-into-treasure-but-from-engineering-systems-and-products-to-make-that-a-regular-reality/) as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

The macro number is real — the 2026 Circularity Gap Report puts global linear-economy waste at roughly €25.4 trillion a year — but the opportunity I described was always sector by sector, and each one moved this year.

Electronics is the clearest case: the e-waste recycling market grew past $55 billion in 2026 on its way to $93 billion by 2034, with “urban mining” — pulling copper, gold and rare earths back out of dead devices — now a serious secondary-resource play rather than a niche. Packaging followed the same script: bioplastics hit roughly $21.7 billion in 2026, compounding near 18% a year, while Pepsi and Coke keep grinding toward their reusable-packaging commitments.

Construction is quietly the biggest mover — demolition-waste management is now valued near $227 billion in 2026, heading past $320 billion by 2033, as landfill mandates turn old buildings into feedstock instead of debris. Fashion resale is the fastest: apparel re-commerce is compounding above 20% a year and luxury resale alone is now a $40-billion-plus category — proof Worn Wear and Adidas-style take-back loops were the leading edge, not the exception.

**Verdict: The sectors are proving out the macro number, not just restating it.** Electronics, packaging, construction and fashion are each building real markets on what used to be trash — food and agriculture, the fifth pillar I named, is the one still waiting for its breakout year.