---
title: "Megatrends One Year Later – #1: Transformative AI – What I Predicted, and What’s Actually Happening"
canonical: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/08/megatrends-one-year-later-1-transformative-ai/
updated: 2026-08-06T09:42:37+00:00
---

# Megatrends One Year Later – #1: Transformative AI – What I Predicted, and What’s Actually Happening

*“The only thing we know for certain about AI is that we don’t know exactly where we are going, but we are making great time.”* – Futurist Jim Carroll

![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Megatrend-1-AI-Transformation-Velocity.jpg)

One year ago, in June 2025, I published [Megatrend #1: Transformative AI](https://jimcarroll.com/2025/06/decoding-tomorrow-30-megatrends-1-the-only-thing-we-know-for-certain-about-al-is-that-we-dont-know-exactly-where-we-are-going-but-we-are-making-great-time/) as part of my 30 Megatrends series. Time to grade myself.

Gartner says 80% of enterprise applications shipped or updated in Q1 2026 embed at least one AI agent — up from 33% in 2024. By the end of this year, 40% of enterprise apps will embed task-specific agents, up from under 5% in 2025.

But here’s the honest part: only 31% of enterprises actually have an AI agent in production, per S&P Global and McKinsey. Banking and insurance lead at 47%. Healthcare and government trail at 18% and 14%.

So the velocity was right. The embedding is happening at a ridiculous rate, exactly as I said. What I’d add a year later: the gap between shipping a feature and running it in production is now the story worth watching.

**Verdict: Nailed the velocity.** The only thing that’s changed about “we don’t know where we’re going”? We’re making even greater time.