--- # Decoding Tomorrow: Daily Inspiration - Automotive Trends: "The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!" **URL:** https://jimcarroll.com/2026/02/decoding-tomorrow-daily-inspiration-automotive-trends-the-road-to-the-future-can-often-be-found-in-the-missteps-of-the-past/ Date: 2026-02-13 Author: JimCarroll Post Type: post Summary: “The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!” – Futurist Jim Carroll So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now? That was the question, and here is the image I used with it, when I spoke at an automotive dealer conference earlier this week. […] Categories: Auto & Transportation, Autonomous / Self Driving Vehicles, Blog, Daily Inspiration, Major trends, Trends Featured Image: https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/RoadToTheFuture.jpg --- *"The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!"* - Futurist Jim Carroll ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/RoadToTheFuture.jpg) So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now? That was the question, and here is the image I used with it, when I spoke at an automotive dealer conference earlier this week. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Cable-Stayed-Rendering-1536x994-1.jpg) What a wild industry! Anyways, I spoke to this same event 14 years ago - and found an original interview. I pretty much nailed the predictions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB4nndpcOSg&list=PLJ7d2Hz52B7dgWIFh3-lWJx-Ig9iS8lS2&index=3 Yet, there were many that were missed or a bit off. Let's revisit! Here's a set of slides I used in my talk - looking back, looking at today, and looking forward. **The Politicization of the Drivetrain** Quite simply, electric vehicles became part of the culture wars. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/01_politicized_drivetrain.jpg) - **2012:** Buying a Prius was a mild statement of environmentalism, not a major political signal. - **Today:** Vehicle has become a central totem in the '*Culture Wars*.' Anti-ESG movement complicates transition; driving is a signal of a political tribe. - **2035:** A *'balkanized*' market where vehicle choice is determined as much by voting record as by fuel price; mass adoption in some regions is significantly harder. **The Linear March to Pure Electrification (BEV)** It was believed that one day, there would be ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, and then there would be a world of all-EVs. It's not happening like that - hybrids are taking over as people simply weren't comfortable with full electric, for a variety of real (and not-so-real) reasons. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02_electrification_march.jpg) - **2012:** Optimism for rapid, linear BEV adoption; millions predicted. - **Today:** Market hits 'trough of disillusionment'; OEMs refocus on hybrids. - **2035:** ICE bans softened; future is a diversified mix of PHEVs and BEVs. **The Evolution of Autonomous Vehicles** Cars would drive themselves. Massive disruptive change! Didn't happen - it's hard to get to 99.9999% accuracy, which is pretty much what's required. I've got a Tesla with 'full self driving' - but am never really fully comfortable. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/03_autonomous_evolution.jpg) - **2012:** Predicted commercially available autonomous cars by 2020; human driving viewed as a "legacy bug". - **Today**: Level 5 does not exist; Level 4 robotaxi fleets operate in limited, geofenced areas. - **2035:** Mature robotaxi networks (L4) in cities; personal vehicles have Level 3 highway systems; driver remains essential. **The Apple iCar Disruption** Everyone thought Apple was going to build a car, and it would be game-changing! It didn't happen. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/04_apple_icar_disruption.jpg) - **2012**: Industry feared a sleek, buttonless "iPhone Moment" electric car would make Detroit and Stuttgart obsolete. - **Today:** Apple cancelled Project Titan; realized automotive manufacturing is low-margin and high-liability. - **2035**: Tech giants colonize the car's screens; OEMs build the chassis, Silicon Valley controls the User Experience. **Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) Replacing Ownership** People weren't going to buy cars because we were all going to be using car-sharing services. Nope. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/05_maas_vs_ownership.jpg) - **2012**: Predicted urban dwellers would abandon personal cars for seamless MaaS subscriptions. - **Today**: MaaS economics failed as VC subsidies ended, prices rose, and consumers preferred private vehicle "sanctuary". - **2035:** MaaS dominates strictly in dense megacities; for the rest of the world, the personal car remains primary. **Millennials Will “Kill" Car Culture** Not only that, but younger people weren't going to buy cars - because they were never into 'car culture.' Another nope - they got married, had kids, got cars! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/07_millennial_car_culture.jpg) - **2012**: Predicted Millennials cared more about smartphones than cars, delaying licensing. - **Today:** Millennials, as they age and start families, become aggressive buyers of SUVs; demography is destiny. - **2035**: Gen Z will follow the exact same pattern; the "*delay*" in licensing is economic, not cultural. **The "Peak Car" Hypothesis** All of this meant that we were going to hit the top limit of sales. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/08_peak_car_hypothesis.jpg) - **2012:** Predicted VMT per capita peaked in the West due to urbanization and digital substitution. - **Today:** "*Peak Car*" debunked by suburbanization and digital reorganization (delivery vans); VMT returned to growth. - **2035:** VMT will rise globally; Western congestion managed by pricing and automation, not fewer cars. **Small Car Dominance (Urbanization)** And the car was going to keep becoming smaller. Um, LOL? ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/09_small_car_dominance.jpg) - **2012:** High gas prices and urbanization led to predictions of small city car dominance. - **Today:** Cheap gas and safety concerns drove consumers to massive SUVs and trucks, hitting record market share. - **2035:** EV efficiency will force SUVs to become sleeker, but the 'tall' form factor is permanent; sedans are niche. **Low Interest Rate / Easy Credit Environment** Cars would continue to be inexpensive! Credit would be easy! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10_credit_environment.jpg) - 2012: Post-recession era defined by near-zero interest rates, fueling a boom in auto loans and leasing. - Today: End of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) crushed affordability; the new car market is for the upper middle class. - 2035: New financing models like fractional ownership and longer-term leases will be required to maintain sales. **Western Hegemony in Auto Manufacturing** Western car companies would own the planet. Sorry, not happening. China does. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/11_manufacturing_hegemony.jpg) - **2012:** German engineering and Detroit muscle were the undisputed benchmarks of quality; focus on panel gaps and engine notes. - **Today:** The definition of '*quality*' shifted from physical attributes to screen responsiveness and battery range (Chinese/Tesla strengths); Legacy OEMs play catch-up. - **2035:** Legacy brands survive by leveraging 'Heritage' and 'Luxury' brand values, while commoditized transportation becomes Asian-dominated. **The Death of the Dealership (Agency Model)** Car dealers would die because we will buy all of our cars online. Some of this happened, but the dealers fought back! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/12_dealership_agency_model.jpg) - **2012**: Inspired by Tesla, OEMs planned to bypass dealers for an Agency Model with fixed pricing. - **Today:** US franchise laws and dealer lawsuits forced OEMs like Ford to scrap agency plans; dealers remain essential for inventory. - **2035:** A hybrid model emerges: online buying through a dealer, with a smaller dealership footprint focused on service. **The Powertrain & Energy Miscalculations** Diesel, baby! Oops! Fraud, baby! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/14_powertrain_miscalculations.jpg) - **2012:** The 2012 consensus bet on clean diesel, hydrogen, and a niche for BEVs, all of which were fundamentally upended. - **Today:** Clean diesel collapsed after the scandal, hydrogen failed to scale, and BEVs dominated, while hybrids saw a resurgence. - **2035**: The future is a diverse mix of BEVs, hybrids, and commercial fuel cells, reflecting the upended 2018 assumptions. Lessons? Sometimes the road to the future is found my examining the missteps of the past! --- ## Categories - Auto & Transportation - Autonomous / Self Driving Vehicles - Blog - Daily Inspiration - Major trends - Trends --- ## Navigation - [Futurist Keynote Speaker Jim Carroll: Disruptive Trend & Innovation Expert](https://jimcarroll.com/) - [HOME](https://jimcarroll.com) - [WHY JIM?](https://jimcarroll.com/why-book-jim/) - [SIGNATURE KEYNOTES](https://jimcarroll.com/signature-keynotes/) - [BOOKS](https://jimcarroll.com/books/) - [INDUSTRIES](https://jimcarroll.com/topics-trends/industry-focused-keynotes-with-futurist-jim-carroll/) - [CEO/CxO EVENTS](https://jimcarroll.com/ceo-leadership-events/) - [CUSTOMER / CLIENT EVENTS](https://jimcarroll.com/customer-client-user-group-keynotes-with-futurist-jim-carroll/) - [Agriculture](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/big-trends-in-agriculture-what-will-the-worlds-oldest-profession-look-like-in-2045/) - [Automotive](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/being-unique-simple-strategies-for-finding-your-creativity-accelerating-innovation-and-getting-to-your-future-faster/) - [Construction](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/constructing-new-futures-the-acceleration-of-the-residential-and-industrial-construction-industries/) - [Consumer Products](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/consumer-products-innovating-at-the-speed-of-instant-obsolesence/) - [Education](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/industry-education/) - [Energy](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/industry-energy/) - [Financial Services](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/industry-financial/) - [Food, Grocery and Restaurants](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/food-and-restaurants-innovation-and-disruption-at-the-speed-of-relentless-customer-change/) - [Golf & Sports](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/future-trends-acceleration-of-golf/) - [Healthcare](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/industry-healthcare/) - [Insurance](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/industry-insurance/) - [Manufacturing](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/industry-manufacturing/) - [Media & Tech](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/from-lightbulbs-to-yottabits-leadership-agility-when-faster-defines-the-speed-of-fast/) - [Retail](https://jimcarroll.com/keynote_topics/industry-retail/) - [GLOBAL CLIENTS](https://jimcarroll.com/events-highlights/) - [INSIGHT](https://jimcarroll.com/insight/) - [THE BIG FUTURE](https://jimcarroll.com/topics-trends/big-future/) - [2025 Strategies](https://jimcarroll.com/category/2025/) - [DAILY INSPIRATION](https://jimcarroll.com/daily-motivation/) - [TRENDS](https://jimcarroll.com/insight-index/?tag=trends) - [INNOVATION](https://jimcarroll.com/insight-index/?tag=innovation) - [BLOG](https://jimcarroll.com/blog/) - [CONTACT JIM](https://jimcarroll.com/contact/) - [Follow Me!](https://jimcarroll.com/follow-me/) - [30 Megatrends](https://jimcarroll.com/category/30-megatrends/) - [AI Megatrends](https://jimcarroll.com/category/ai-robots-ar/ai-megatrends/) - [AI, Robots, AR, Digital Twins](https://jimcarroll.com/category/ai-robots-ar/) - [Blog](https://jimcarroll.com/category/blog/) - [Daily Inspiration](https://jimcarroll.com/category/daily-inspiration/) - [Faster](https://jimcarroll.com/category/faster/) - [Focusing on Growth](https://jimcarroll.com/category/focusing-on-growth-videos/) - [Future Trends](https://jimcarroll.com/category/future-trends-videos/) - [Major trends](https://jimcarroll.com/category/major-trends/) - [Retail](https://jimcarroll.com/category/retail-trends/) - [The Future & Opportunity](https://jimcarroll.com/category/the-future-opportunity-videos/) - [Think Big](https://jimcarroll.com/category/thinkbig/) - [Trends](https://jimcarroll.com/category/trends/) - [AI KEYNOTES](https://jimcarroll.ai) - [AI MEGATRENDS](https://jimcarroll.com/ai-megatrends) - [THE "BIG" FUTURE](https://bigfuture.jimcarroll.com) --- ## Footer Links - [Jim's Facebook page](https://www.facebook.com/futuristjimcarroll) - [You'll find Jim's latest videos on Youtube](https://youtube.com/jimcarroll) - [Mastodon. 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