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# Decoding Tomorrow: Daily Inspiration - Automotive Trends: "The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!"
**URL:** https://jimcarroll.com/2026/02/decoding-tomorrow-daily-inspiration-automotive-trends-the-road-to-the-future-can-often-be-found-in-the-missteps-of-the-past/
Date: 2026-02-13
Author: JimCarroll
Post Type: post
Summary: “The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!” – Futurist Jim Carroll So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now? That was the question, and here is the image I used with it, when I spoke at an automotive dealer conference earlier this week. […]
Categories: Auto & Transportation, Autonomous / Self Driving Vehicles, Blog, Daily Inspiration, Major trends, Trends
Featured Image: https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/RoadToTheFuture.jpg
---
*"The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!"* - Futurist Jim Carroll
So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now?
That was the question, and here is the image I used with it, when I spoke at an automotive dealer conference earlier this week.
What a wild industry!
Anyways, I spoke to this same event 14 years ago - and found an original interview. I pretty much nailed the predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB4nndpcOSg&list=PLJ7d2Hz52B7dgWIFh3-lWJx-Ig9iS8lS2&index=3
Yet, there were many that were missed or a bit off.
Let's revisit! Here's a set of slides I used in my talk - looking back, looking at today, and looking forward.
**The Politicization of the Drivetrain**
Quite simply, electric vehicles became part of the culture wars.
- **2012:** Buying a Prius was a mild statement of environmentalism, not a major political signal.
- **Today:** Vehicle has become a central totem in the '*Culture Wars*.' Anti-ESG movement complicates transition; driving is a signal of a political tribe.
- **2035:** A *'balkanized*' market where vehicle choice is determined as much by voting record as by fuel price; mass adoption in some regions is significantly harder.
**The Linear March to Pure Electrification (BEV)**
It was believed that one day, there would be ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, and then there would be a world of all-EVs. It's not happening like that - hybrids are taking over as people simply weren't comfortable with full electric, for a variety of real (and not-so-real) reasons.
- **2012:** Optimism for rapid, linear BEV adoption; millions predicted.
- **Today:** Market hits 'trough of disillusionment'; OEMs refocus on hybrids.
- **2035:** ICE bans softened; future is a diversified mix of PHEVs and BEVs.
**The Evolution of Autonomous Vehicles**
Cars would drive themselves. Massive disruptive change! Didn't happen - it's hard to get to 99.9999% accuracy, which is pretty much what's required. I've got a Tesla with 'full self driving' - but am never really fully comfortable.
- **2012:** Predicted commercially available autonomous cars by 2020; human driving viewed as a "legacy bug".
- **Today**: Level 5 does not exist; Level 4 robotaxi fleets operate in limited, geofenced areas.
- **2035:** Mature robotaxi networks (L4) in cities; personal vehicles have Level 3 highway systems; driver remains essential.
**The Apple iCar Disruption**
Everyone thought Apple was going to build a car, and it would be game-changing! It didn't happen.
- **2012**: Industry feared a sleek, buttonless "iPhone Moment" electric car would make Detroit and Stuttgart obsolete.
- **Today:** Apple cancelled Project Titan; realized automotive manufacturing is low-margin and high-liability.
- **2035**: Tech giants colonize the car's screens; OEMs build the chassis, Silicon Valley controls the User Experience.
**Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) Replacing Ownership**
People weren't going to buy cars because we were all going to be using car-sharing services. Nope.
- **2012**: Predicted urban dwellers would abandon personal cars for seamless MaaS subscriptions.
- **Today**: MaaS economics failed as VC subsidies ended, prices rose, and consumers preferred private vehicle "sanctuary".
- **2035:** MaaS dominates strictly in dense megacities; for the rest of the world, the personal car remains primary.
**Millennials Will “Kill" Car Culture**
Not only that, but younger people weren't going to buy cars - because they were never into 'car culture.' Another nope - they got married, had kids, got cars!
- **2012**: Predicted Millennials cared more about smartphones than cars, delaying licensing.
- **Today:** Millennials, as they age and start families, become aggressive buyers of SUVs; demography is destiny.
- **2035**: Gen Z will follow the exact same pattern; the "*delay*" in licensing is economic, not cultural.
**The "Peak Car" Hypothesis**
All of this meant that we were going to hit the top limit of sales.
- **2012:** Predicted VMT per capita peaked in the West due to urbanization and digital substitution.
- **Today:** "*Peak Car*" debunked by suburbanization and digital reorganization (delivery vans); VMT returned to growth.
- **2035:** VMT will rise globally; Western congestion managed by pricing and automation, not fewer cars.
**Small Car Dominance (Urbanization)**
And the car was going to keep becoming smaller. Um, LOL?
- **2012:** High gas prices and urbanization led to predictions of small city car dominance.
- **Today:** Cheap gas and safety concerns drove consumers to massive SUVs and trucks, hitting record market share.
- **2035:** EV efficiency will force SUVs to become sleeker, but the 'tall' form factor is permanent; sedans are niche.
**Low Interest Rate / Easy Credit Environment**
Cars would continue to be inexpensive! Credit would be easy!
- 2012: Post-recession era defined by near-zero interest rates, fueling a boom in auto loans and leasing.
- Today: End of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) crushed affordability; the new car market is for the upper middle class.
- 2035: New financing models like fractional ownership and longer-term leases will be required to maintain sales.
**Western Hegemony in Auto Manufacturing**
Western car companies would own the planet. Sorry, not happening. China does.
- **2012:** German engineering and Detroit muscle were the undisputed benchmarks of quality; focus on panel gaps and engine notes.
- **Today:** The definition of '*quality*' shifted from physical attributes to screen responsiveness and battery range (Chinese/Tesla strengths); Legacy OEMs play catch-up.
- **2035:** Legacy brands survive by leveraging 'Heritage' and 'Luxury' brand values, while commoditized transportation becomes Asian-dominated.
**The Death of the Dealership (Agency Model)**
Car dealers would die because we will buy all of our cars online. Some of this happened, but the dealers fought back!
- **2012**: Inspired by Tesla, OEMs planned to bypass dealers for an Agency Model with fixed pricing.
- **Today:** US franchise laws and dealer lawsuits forced OEMs like Ford to scrap agency plans; dealers remain essential for inventory.
- **2035:** A hybrid model emerges: online buying through a dealer, with a smaller dealership footprint focused on service.
**The Powertrain & Energy Miscalculations**
Diesel, baby! Oops! Fraud, baby!
- **2012:** The 2012 consensus bet on clean diesel, hydrogen, and a niche for BEVs, all of which were fundamentally upended.
- **Today:** Clean diesel collapsed after the scandal, hydrogen failed to scale, and BEVs dominated, while hybrids saw a resurgence.
- **2035**: The future is a diverse mix of BEVs, hybrids, and commercial fuel cells, reflecting the upended 2018 assumptions.
Lessons? Sometimes the road to the future is found my examining the missteps of the past!
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