--- type: Web Page title: "Decoding Tomorrow: Daily Inspiration – Automotive Trends: “The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!”" canonical: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/02/decoding-tomorrow-daily-inspiration-automotive-trends-the-road-to-the-future-can-often-be-found-in-the-missteps-of-the-past/ updated: 2026-02-13T10:50:33+00:00 --- # Decoding Tomorrow: Daily Inspiration – Automotive Trends: “The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!” *“The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!”* – Futurist Jim Carroll ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/RoadToTheFuture.jpg) So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now? That was the question, and here is the image I used with it, when I spoke at an automotive dealer conference earlier this week. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Cable-Stayed-Rendering-1536x994-1.jpg) What a wild industry! Anyways, I spoke to this same event 14 years ago – and found an original interview. I pretty much nailed the predictions. Yet, there were many that were missed or a bit off. Let’s revisit! Here’s a set of slides I used in my talk – looking back, looking at today, and looking forward. **The Politicization of the Drivetrain** Quite simply, electric vehicles became part of the culture wars. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/01_politicized_drivetrain.jpg) - **2012:** Buying a Prius was a mild statement of environmentalism, not a major political signal. - **Today:** Vehicle has become a central totem in the ‘*Culture Wars*.’ Anti-ESG movement complicates transition; driving is a signal of a political tribe. - **2035:** A *‘balkanized*‘ market where vehicle choice is determined as much by voting record as by fuel price; mass adoption in some regions is significantly harder. **The Linear March to Pure Electrification (BEV)** It was believed that one day, there would be ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, and then there would be a world of all-EVs. It’s not happening like that – hybrids are taking over as people simply weren’t comfortable with full electric, for a variety of real (and not-so-real) reasons. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02_electrification_march.jpg) - **2012:** Optimism for rapid, linear BEV adoption; millions predicted. - **Today:** Market hits ‘trough of disillusionment’; OEMs refocus on hybrids. - **2035:** ICE bans softened; future is a diversified mix of PHEVs and BEVs. **The Evolution of Autonomous Vehicles** Cars would drive themselves. Massive disruptive change! Didn’t happen – it’s hard to get to 99.9999% accuracy, which is pretty much what’s required. I’ve got a Tesla with ‘full self driving’ – but am never really fully comfortable. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/03_autonomous_evolution.jpg) - **2012:** Predicted commercially available autonomous cars by 2020; human driving viewed as a “legacy bug”. - **Today**: Level 5 does not exist; Level 4 robotaxi fleets operate in limited, geofenced areas. - **2035:** Mature robotaxi networks (L4) in cities; personal vehicles have Level 3 highway systems; driver remains essential. **The Apple iCar Disruption** Everyone thought Apple was going to build a car, and it would be game-changing! It didn’t happen. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/04_apple_icar_disruption.jpg) - **2012**: Industry feared a sleek, buttonless “iPhone Moment” electric car would make Detroit and Stuttgart obsolete. - **Today:** Apple cancelled Project Titan; realized automotive manufacturing is low-margin and high-liability. - **2035**: Tech giants colonize the car’s screens; OEMs build the chassis, Silicon Valley controls the User Experience. **Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) Replacing Ownership** People weren’t going to buy cars because we were all going to be using car-sharing services. Nope. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/05_maas_vs_ownership.jpg) - **2012**: Predicted urban dwellers would abandon personal cars for seamless MaaS subscriptions. - **Today**: MaaS economics failed as VC subsidies ended, prices rose, and consumers preferred private vehicle “sanctuary”. - **2035:** MaaS dominates strictly in dense megacities; for the rest of the world, the personal car remains primary. **Millennials Will “Kill” Car Culture** Not only that, but younger people weren’t going to buy cars – because they were never into ‘car culture.’ Another nope – they got married, had kids, got cars! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/07_millennial_car_culture.jpg) - **2012**: Predicted Millennials cared more about smartphones than cars, delaying licensing. - **Today:** Millennials, as they age and start families, become aggressive buyers of SUVs; demography is destiny. - **2035**: Gen Z will follow the exact same pattern; the “*delay*” in licensing is economic, not cultural. **The “Peak Car” Hypothesis** All of this meant that we were going to hit the top limit of sales. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/08_peak_car_hypothesis.jpg) - **2012:** Predicted VMT per capita peaked in the West due to urbanization and digital substitution. - **Today:** “*Peak Car*” debunked by suburbanization and digital reorganization (delivery vans); VMT returned to growth. - **2035:** VMT will rise globally; Western congestion managed by pricing and automation, not fewer cars. **Small Car Dominance (Urbanization)** And the car was going to keep becoming smaller. Um, LOL? ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/09_small_car_dominance.jpg) - **2012:** High gas prices and urbanization led to predictions of small city car dominance. - **Today:** Cheap gas and safety concerns drove consumers to massive SUVs and trucks, hitting record market share. - **2035:** EV efficiency will force SUVs to become sleeker, but the ‘tall’ form factor is permanent; sedans are niche. **Low Interest Rate / Easy Credit Environment** Cars would continue to be inexpensive! Credit would be easy! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/10_credit_environment.jpg) - 2012: Post-recession era defined by near-zero interest rates, fueling a boom in auto loans and leasing. - Today: End of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) crushed affordability; the new car market is for the upper middle class. - 2035: New financing models like fractional ownership and longer-term leases will be required to maintain sales. **Western Hegemony in Auto Manufacturing** Western car companies would own the planet. Sorry, not happening. China does. ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/11_manufacturing_hegemony.jpg) - **2012:** German engineering and Detroit muscle were the undisputed benchmarks of quality; focus on panel gaps and engine notes. - **Today:** The definition of ‘*quality*‘ shifted from physical attributes to screen responsiveness and battery range (Chinese/Tesla strengths); Legacy OEMs play catch-up. - **2035:** Legacy brands survive by leveraging ‘Heritage’ and ‘Luxury’ brand values, while commoditized transportation becomes Asian-dominated. **The Death of the Dealership (Agency Model)** Car dealers would die because we will buy all of our cars online. Some of this happened, but the dealers fought back! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/12_dealership_agency_model.jpg) - **2012**: Inspired by Tesla, OEMs planned to bypass dealers for an Agency Model with fixed pricing. - **Today:** US franchise laws and dealer lawsuits forced OEMs like Ford to scrap agency plans; dealers remain essential for inventory. - **2035:** A hybrid model emerges: online buying through a dealer, with a smaller dealership footprint focused on service. **The Powertrain & Energy Miscalculations** Diesel, baby! Oops! Fraud, baby! ![](https://jimcarroll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/14_powertrain_miscalculations.jpg) - **2012:** The 2012 consensus bet on clean diesel, hydrogen, and a niche for BEVs, all of which were fundamentally upended. - **Today:** Clean diesel collapsed after the scandal, hydrogen failed to scale, and BEVs dominated, while hybrids saw a resurgence. - **2035**: The future is a diverse mix of BEVs, hybrids, and commercial fuel cells, reflecting the upended 2018 assumptions. Lessons? Sometimes the road to the future is found my examining the missteps of the past!