“Ignore consensus!” – Futurist Jim Carroll
The recession-that-isn’t-a-recession has been coming at us for a long time – if you listened to the headlines, you would have been frozen in fear since 2017 if not earlier! Let me offer you just a few of the headlines that have appeared in a constant drumbeat of negativity, during the month of February each year.
Europe-wide RECESSION warning: Economist says downturn will cause COLLAPSE of eurozone
express.co.uk, 25 February 2017
Canadians believe country in recession
The Toronto Star, 15 February 2017
Expert Column: Why the next recession could be looming
San Antonio Business Journal, 13 February 2017
Head of world’s largest hedge fund says U.S. in a ‘pre-bubble phase’ with a 70% chance of recession
MarketWatch, 28 February 2018
With rates low, Fed officials fret over next U.S. recession
Reuters News, 23 February 2018,
Bear market for stocks already underway, recession coming, says Crescat Capital
MarketWatch, 27 February 2019
JPMorgan signals caution on credit as recession concerns rise
American Banker, 27 February 2019
Coronavirus Outbreak in Europe Increases Recession Risks for Eurozone — Market Talk
Dow Jones Institutional News, 28 February 2020
Coronavirus, recession fears wipe $12 trillion from markets
Herald Sun – Online, 28 February 2020
Recession takes hold in Europe as pandemic is on the rise in some regions
MarketWatch, 26 February 2021
‘We are now in a recession, but how quickly can we come back from it?’
Gorey Guardian, 13 February 2021
Brace for more volatility, European recession
The Australian – Online, 18:40, 28 February 2022
Fallout fuels global recession fears
The Australian, 24 February 2022
And then… came the US jobs report last week which continued to show an economy with massive resilience. Oops!
‘Stunner’: After massive surge in January jobs, PNC pushes recession likelihood past mid-2023
Houston Business Journal, 6 February 2023
Yellen: “There is no recession when unemployment is at more than a 50-year low”
CE NoticiasFinancieras, 6 February 2023
You can expect headlines, for the next ten years at least to predict the next imminent recession. If you let this mindset drive your mindset, you’ll miss out on the future, opportunity, and growth. Don’t let that happen. Consider this – consensus is usually wrong! My research tool, which allowed me to narrow in on the commonality of these headlines above, also gave me a fascinating article that perhaps summarizes the ridiculous moments in time in which we have found ourselves. The article should have been shared far and wide when it first came out – a lot of people would have saved themselves a lot of indecision and unnecessary pullbacks as a result!
MPs laughed as Belgian Gertjan Vlieghe, who sits on the Bank’s interest rate-setting committee, told them: “I’m never confident of any forecast”.
Belgian Gertjan Vlieghe, who sits on the Bank’s interest rate-setting committee, said he was ‘never confident of any forecast’
The economist was speaking to the Treasury Select Committee alongside his boss Mark Carney, who warned ahead of June EU’s referendum that a Brexit vote could trigger a recession.
Mr Vlieghe, formerly employed by DEUTSCHE BANK, added: “We are probably not going to forecast the next financial crisis, nor are we going to forecast the next recession.
“Models are just not that good. There isn’t one model which is right or wrong, and if only we had found a slightly better model then we wouldn’t have made the mistakes that we’ve made.”
He said there were “unrealistic expectations of what we’re going to get from economics in the next five years”. Bank Governor Mr Carney agreed: “Do we have a perfect model of the British household? No. We might understand that no forecast as a prediction is perfect, that there’s probabilities around that, but that’s not what people hear, and we need to do a better job of explaining.”
….The Bank’s chief economist Andy Haldane defended comments he made last month about his profession facing a Michael Fish moment….This was a reference to the BBC weather man failing to forecast the devastating storm which swept through Britain in October 1987.
Mr Haldane said: “Our problem is intrinsically more difficult than meteorologists’ and therefore perhaps the scope for us improving is somewhat more limited.”
WE’RE SO CLUELESS
Bank of England chiefs lose the plot and admit they won’t see next recession or financial crisis coming
thesun.co.uk, 21 February 2017
What happens when people are convinced that gloom is just around the corner? They max out their gloominess! The constant media drumbeat has them convinced that we are always just on the edge of awfulness! Data out of the US and Europe show that even while, right now, we see gloom despite continued relentless growth in the number of jobs and continued economic expansion. People are convincing themselves that we live in the worst of times – meanwhile, Joe Biden has presided over the faster period of jobs growth of any US President ever.
Meanwhile, people have been searching for the phrase ‘fears of a recession‘ since, well, forever!
I really don’t think the so-called experts know what is going on. That’s why this quote which I put together a few years ago is one of my favorites!
Is this true? Let me offer evidence as Exhibit A:
Ignore consensus! It’s good for you! Because otherwise, as I wrote Trend 6 of my “23 Trends for 2023″ series: “Opting out,” the consensus has been that “you’d better hunker down, scale back, slow down, take it easy, be cautious, reduce spending, defer our actions, wait it out, take things slow, put things on pause.”
And as I wrote in that post:
And that is just plain idiotic. History tells us so – because those who choose to opt out of conventional wisdom are those who win.
The trend that will unfold in 2023 has to do with the decision by many to choose not to participate in the current or upcoming recession, economic downturn, or whatever we want to call this period of economic uncertainty.
Ignore consensus! Choose growth!